Nebraska is the only state with two abortion measures on the ballot. Confusion is the point.

Originally published in Vox on October 15, 2024.
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Voters in 10 states will weigh in on abortion-rights ballot measures this November, but only Nebraskans will cast ballots on two competing initiatives. Initiative 439 would establish a state constitutional right to abortion up to fetal viability or when necessary to protect the “health or life” of the pregnant patient. Initiative 434, however, would ban abortion in the second and third trimesters, with exceptions for sexual assault, incest, or medical emergencies.

“We hear all the time how confusing the two measures are and folks are very afraid of accidentally checking the wrong one,” said Shelley Mann, the executive director of Nebraska Abortion Resources (NEAR), the only statewide abortion fund in Nebraska.

Much of the confusion surrounding the competing proposals is intentional, and likely a preview of new tactics in the evolving anti-abortion playbook.

Since May 2023, abortion in Nebraska has been banned past the first trimester, and last fall reproductive choice advocates launched a ballot measure campaign to restore and expand access. Anti-abortion leaders introduced a competing measure four months later. (The proposed anti-abortion ballot measure wouldn’t expand current restrictions, but it would embed existing second- and third-trimester bans into Nebraska’s state constitution. This would make it significantly more difficult for the legislature or courts to roll back those restrictions later.)

While collecting signatures, some canvassers from the Protect Women and Children campaign misrepresented themselves as being in favor of expanding abortion access, leading hundreds of Nebraskans to erroneously sign their petition.

Upon realizing their mistake, more than 300 of those voters signed affidavits to have their names removed from the anti-abortion petition, marking the highest number of removal requests in the state’s history. (Over 205,000 people signed the anti-abortion petition in total.)

More recently, Catherine Brooks — a neonatal pediatrician who filed legal objections to block the pro-abortion rights measure from appearing on Nebraska’s ballot — appeared in a TV ad in which she portrayed herself as an advocate for reproductive freedom fighting against government intrusion in medicine.

“As a doctor, I want compassionate, clear, scientific standards of care,” Brooks said in the ad. “As a mom, I want to keep the government out of the relationship between a woman and her physician. Initiative 439 pretends to protect our rights but it does the opposite. It lets government officials interfere in medical decisions and takes care out of the hands of licensed physicians, when women in crisis need them most.”

There’s little doubt that Republicans in Nebraska hope to restrict abortion beyond the existing 12-week ban, which was passed shortly after lawmakers narrowly failed to impose a six-week limit. Nebraska’s Republican Gov. Jim Pillen has publicly pledged to continue fighting until abortion is fully banned in his state.

The outcome of these dueling ballot proposals could affect not just those in Nebraska but pregnant people nationwide. Abortion rights activists have been sounding the alarm, warning that if Initiative 434 succeeds in November, anti-abortion leaders will export their winning strategy elsewhere — using the language of reproductive freedom to advance seemingly moderate measures that obscure long-term goals of deeper bans.

Nebraska’s 12-week abortion ban is already causing harm

The 12-week abortion ban Nebraska lawmakers passed in May 2023 included exceptions for pregnancies caused by rape or incest, or to save the life of the mother.

As in other states, these exceptions have proved ambiguous for doctors on the ground, and many patients who need abortion care have been unable to get it.

Kim Paseka, a 34-year-old woman based in Lincoln, Nebraska, was one of those patients. Paseka lives with her husband and their 3-year-old son, and though they wanted at least two children, they were unsure about pursuing that in Nebraska after Roe was overturned.

“We knew it was probably inevitable that our state government was going to work on banning reproductive health care in some capacity and it definitely gave us pause, like should we move, do we stay and fight? Those were our dinner table conversations,” she told Vox. In the summer of 2023, just after Nebraska lawmakers passed their 12-week ban, Paseka learned she was pregnant again.

Initial blood tests looked fine, but following a routine ultrasound, Paseka was informed that her baby’s heartbeat was slower than expected. In subsequent appointments, the doctors determined the heartbeat was diminishing and that Paseka was carrying a nonviable pregnancy.

Because of the new ban and the fact that Paseka’s life was not immediately threatened, her doctors weren’t comfortable ending the pregnancy. They sent her home with instructions for “expectant management” — meaning to wait until she’d bleed out eventually with a miscarriage.

“I had to go back to the hospital for three more scans, where I had to see the heartbeat weaken further week by week, and during this whole time I’m so nauseous, I’m tired, I’m experiencing all the regular pregnancy symptoms, but I was carrying a nonviable pregnancy,” she said. It took roughly a month for Paseka to finally bleed out the pregnancy at home.

“In Nebraska, we have these exceptions, but in my situation it wasn’t assault, it wasn’t incest, and my life wasn’t in immediate danger, so I automatically just lose health care,” she said. “They’re forgetting how detrimental that can be to mental health, that it’s not just about physical endangerment. … I felt like a walking coffin.”

Mann, the executive director of Nebraska’s statewide abortion fund, emphasized that the 12-week ban has had far-reaching consequences that most people underestimate.

“Not only are folks now restricted in how and when they can get the care they need, but it’s additionally problematic that these rules are designed to be confusing and were brought about during a time when confusion was at an all-time high,” she told Vox. “We talk to callers and members of the community all the time who have no idea when and if abortion is even legal here in Nebraska.”

There are two remaining abortion clinics in the state, though both only perform abortions part-time, meaning there sometimes are not enough appointments to go around, including for patients traveling in from states with near-total bans like Iowa and South Dakota.

“This means that not only are patients who are past the 12-week mark forced to flee the state for care, but even patients under that ban restriction are sometimes having to travel just to get an appointment in a timely manner,” Mann explained. “These patients are going to places like Minneapolis, Chicago, and Denver … this travel is often expensive, inconvenient, and overall an enormous burden on pregnant people.”

Anti-abortion leaders plan to push for further restrictions in Nebraska

Initiative 434, also known as the Prohibit Abortions After the First Trimester Amendment, sounds almost like a measure to protect abortion access in the first 12 weeks of a pregnancy. The proposal, which is being primarily funded by Nebraska billionaire and US Sen. Pete Ricketts, does not in fact do that.

On top of codifying the state’s existing ban on abortion past 12 weeks into Nebraska’s constitution, the measure allows lawmakers to pass further legislative bans on top. Put differently, it strengthens abortion bans but provides no meaningful increase in abortion access.

Marion Miner, the associate director for “pro-life and family policy” at the Nebraska Catholic Conference, emphasized in a video posted over the summer that he does not see Initiative 434 as “an acceptable final resolution” because it does “not protect all unborn children” including those born from sexual assault or incest.

“It is an imperfect proposal … an incremental pro-life initiative that takes a small step to protect unborn life without restraining us from doing more,” Miner said, stressing Initiative 434 would “allow for additional protections to be passed in the future.”

Over a century ago, Nebraska lawmakers enacted a law stating that if two conflicting state constitutional ballot measures pass, the measure with the most votes will be adopted. According to Nebraska Secretary of State Bob Evnen, if both Initiative 439 and Initiative 434 pass, it would mark the first time this 1912 law could be used.

“It’s possible that one of the proposals could get approved and not be adopted,” Evnen told NPR in May. “It’ll come down to, whichever one receives the most votes is the one that would go into Nebraska’s constitution.”

Even the existing 12-week ban, often described by conservatives as a moderate compromise, appears out of step with what Nebraskans want. The ACLU of Nebraska found in late 2022 that 59 percent of respondents opposed lawmakers enacting abortion bans, with opposition in both rural and urban areas and every congressional district.

In the more than two years since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, abortion rights ballot measures have succeeded in all seven states in which they’ve appeared, including red and purple states like Kentucky, Ohio, Kansas, Michigan, and Montana. This year, high-profile abortion rights measures are on the ballot in states like Florida, Arizona, and Missouri. Nebraska’s contests, relative to these other states, have received less attention.

“They know public opinion is on our side so they’re doing everything they can to muddy the waters,” said Allie Berry, the manager for the Protect Our Rights campaign, which is leading Nebraska’s ballot measure to expand abortion rights. While Berry feels cautiously optimistic, she understands her opponents are striving to trip up voters. “If they succeed here,” Berry predicts, “they’ll try this in every other state.”

Biden’s push for child care failed. What lessons are there for Kamala Harris?

Originally published in Vox on October 8, 2024.
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Caregiving policies are having a moment in the 2024 election. Back in June, before President Joe Biden exited the race, the first presidential debate moderator asked both candidates how they’d help families better afford child care, noting that prices averaged over $11,000 per child in 2023. (Both Biden and former President Donald Trump dodged the question.) New care policy proposals then surfaced on the campaign trail over the summer, as vice presidential candidate Sen. JD Vance endorsed an expanded child tax credit (CTC), followed by Vice President Kamala Harris endorsing her own expanded credit on top of a new CTC for families with newborns. Both campaigns have said they’d fight for paid family leave and Harris recently said she’d cap child care costs at 7 percent of a family’s income.

If some of these ideas sound familiar, it’s because the push for “care economy” policies — ranging from paid family leave and an expanded CTC to affordable child care, universal preschool, elder care, and higher wages for care workers — was a central focus for advocates and Democrats during the 2021 Build Back Better Act negotiations. However, those talks fell apart after Democratic leadership failed to reach a deal with Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who had concerns over the size and scope of the package. The following year, care policies were ultimately excluded from the $740 billion Inflation Reduction Act Democrats passed into law.

Advocates are now pressing politicians to redouble their commitment to care legislation — citing polling that suggests such investments are not just good policy but smart politics. Care organizations are particularly pinning hopes on Harris winning in November, as a Democratic victory increases the chances for significant new federal spending.

But should Harris actually win and advocates get another opportunity to push for federal policy, what, if anything, would they do? How, if at all, are they reflecting on their last failed push, and preparing for the future, especially given the strong chance that Republicans win the Senate? The odds of a Democratic trifecta are low.

Over the past several months Vox has been speaking with lawmakers, strategists, philanthropic funders, congressional aides, think tank experts, and leaders of care advocacy groups to gauge the future of federal care policy. The interviews revealed a simmering debate over whether advocates should narrow their focus to one or two agenda items in a future legislative push or whether compromise represents premature capitulation, a sign of adopting a limiting “scarcity mentality.” Beyond the tactical debate, deeper tensions have surfaced over whether future efforts should focus on the most vulnerable families or build out new programs for more people, and broader questions have emerged about who sets the agenda in Democratic policymaking, and whether there’s room in the party for real dissent.

Should Democrats have prioritized more?

In the summer and fall of 2021, as congressional negotiations for Build Back Better were heating up, activists saw a major opportunity to push new investments in paid family leave, child care, elder care, universal preschool and an expanded CTC. How exactly to describe this sweeping legislation wasn’t clear. “Cradle-to-grave” social welfare? A jobs and climate package? Human infrastructure?

While Sen. Manchin had signaled he opposed spending as much as the White House and House Democrats were prepared to invest ($3.5 trillion over 10 years) and that he disapproved of budget tricks including temporary programs he suspected leaders would try to make permanent later on, advocates were optimistic that with enough pressure, Manchin would come around on most things. Manchin had also emphasized that he opposed expanding the CTC in a way that eliminated its connection to work, but activists believed he’d ultimately cave on that as well, given emerging research that showed how a CTC without work requirements successfully reduced child poverty by 30 percent during the pandemic. Both the White House and Senate Democrats were staking out political capital in declaring an extension of the pandemic CTC to be their top priority, too.

So when negotiations for Build Back Better ultimately collapsed in late December 2021, care advocates, White House officials, and Senate Democrats insisted there was ultimately nothing else they could have done, that Manchin had been disingenuous and never intended to strike a deal in the first place. (Manchin had expressed openness to policies like a permanent expansion of preschool and a larger CTC with a work requirement.) By the time January rolled around, care advocates were loath to adopt any new strategy, insisting they just needed to keep fighting and that eventually Manchin would come to his senses. Inflation was soaring by that point.

Anyone who challenged this strategic consensus faced consequences. In February 2022, Patrick Gaspard, the president of the liberal Center for American Progress think tank, acknowledged in a memo that the House’s version of the Build Back Better Act had no path in the Senate, and urged lawmakers to focus on lowering health care costs, addressing the climate crisis, and reducing child care expenses through initiatives like universal pre-K. Shortly after, a coalition of care advocates voted to expel CAP from their group for throwing its weight behind a proposal that didn’t include an expanded CTC.

Also in February 2022, representatives from an umbrella group representing large, private child care providers spoke with Manchin about possibly moving forward on expanding the Child Care and Development Block Grant (CCDBG) — a longstanding federal program aimed at reducing child care costs for low-income families. Other care economy advocates grew furious, and accused the group of sabotaging their larger, more progressive agenda.

(While CCDBG has bipartisan support in Congress and is massively underfunded, many liberal child care advocates oppose its work requirement and want to see policymakers increase public subsidies to all or most families, not just poor households.)

“That was probably one of the ugliest negotiations I’ve seen in terms of stifling folks,” said one child care advocate who requested anonymity to describe their private coalition calls. People who held very senior positions in the Obama administration on child care were saying the same things about moving forward on CCDBG, the advocate added, “and were being met as some sort of public enemy #1.”

A Democratic Senate aide, speaking anonymously to describe their own private conversations, recalled hearing through the congressional grapevine in the winter of 2022 that Manchin might be open to a deal on expanding CCDBG. This sounded encouraging to the aide, who had already accepted that the window for some sort of investment on the scale of the House’s version of Build Back Better had passed. But when this aide broached the idea of a new path forward with care advocacy groups, they too were met with backlash.

“We had some really tough conversations with outside advocates when we tried to change course and got some very bad reactions,” the aide told Vox. “The idea to expand and pump out CCDBG, I think, fell really short of what they were trying to do.” The aide had hoped that, given their boss’s record on championing care policies, advocates would have been more understanding about a strategic pivot, and see it more as an effort to be nimble and respond to an evolving situation, and not about throwing groups under the bus. “Honestly those were very bad conversations and I look back at that time with a lot of sadness,” the aide said. “These things can get kind of intense and personal.”

Finally, after more than five months of resisting a new plan, and more than three months after Manchin expressed openness to reviewing a proposal on expanding CCDBG, Sens. Patty Murray and Tim Kaine released a proposal to expand CCDBG aid for more than a million new children. But most political observers felt it was too little, too late, and that the door for reaching a deal had closed.

“I mean, it was like a Hail Mary, you could see the window was closing and that’s finally when [advocates] came to try and find some compromise,” said one leader who supported pivoting much earlier. “There was this mentality that if you show your willingness to compromise early it’s going to kill your chances, and I think it was ultimately their unwillingness to compromise earlier that killed it.”

When does perfect become the enemy of good?

The last few years seem to have revealed that within the Democratic Party, there’s not much space for debating competing care policy ideas.

In the fall of 2021, as advocates began circling the wagon to get their policies through congressional negotiations, Matt Bruenig, the founder of the left-wing People’s Policy Project, came out with a number of critiques about the package — for instance, that the Senate’s paid leave bill would exclude at least 30 percent of new parents, that the House’s version was full of giveaways to insurance companies, that the proposed child care bill could lead to massive hikes in cost for middle-class families, and that pre-K and child care bills were crafted in ways that made adoption by Republican states unlikely.

Democratic lawmakers and care advocates “mov[ed] quickly to dull a dagger,” as Politico put it at the time. Child care proponents publicly dismissed Bruenig, arguing he wasn’t closely reading the legislation and was spreading “a viral set of misinformation.” Paid leave advocates similarly declined to raise any concerns. “I trust the judgment of the Ways and Means Committee and of politicians who need to square the fact that there are lots of different interests at play,” one national paid leave advocate told the American Prospect when questioned about the insurance giveaways. Another said they were not “choosing fights” as negotiations progressed.

Bruenig wasn’t the only person to notice weaknesses in the bills. When another think tank analyst raised issues, they were similarly told to keep quiet. Anyone raising concerns at this vulnerable negotiating stage was letting perfect be the enemy of good, or not grasping that this was the best possible version lawmakers could pass at this time, and that modifications could always be made later.

Except a few weeks after Bruenig’s critique about rising child care costs for unsubsidized families, Senate Democrats quietly revised their bill, significantly raising the income threshold to address that concern.

Similar dynamics emerged the next year when attempts to strike a new deal with Manchin were met with fierce outcry. The incentives to keep one’s head down and go along with the coalition were real.

Bruenig has called this policymaking apparatus both dysfunctional and undemocratic. “If this nightmarish process actually generated good policy that was put into law, maybe you could forgive people for engaging in it,” he wrote in May of 2022. “But in reality, it keeps generating extremely broken policies that mostly don’t pass anyway and that fail to live up to expectations even when they do.”

Even if some believe it’s unwise to debate legislative details during ongoing negotiations, since the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, there’s been little space or energy to explore alternative ideas. “Now is allegedly supposed to be the time when people are to say, ‘Okay, let’s hash it out,’ but it still doesn’t happen,” Bruenig told Vox.

Care advocates think they deserve more credit for coming close

As it became even clearer over the summer of 2022 that child care investments were not going to be part of what ultimately became the Inflation Reduction Act, child care advocates began ramping up threats of economic calamity. A letter sent that July from 26 national organizations warned lawmakers that omitting child care aid from the reconciliation package would push the early childhood sector “closer to a catastrophic funding cliff that will affect America’s entire economy” and “preven[t] countless moms from pursuing economic security — let alone economic success.”

These warnings continued to escalate over the next two years. The following summer, advocates warned that if Congress failed to renew expiring Covid-19 child care funding, then 70,000 child care programs would likely close, resulting in 3.2 million children losing access to care, and mothers in particular would be forced to quit their jobs or work part-time.

This “child care cliff” idea originated with the left-wing Century Foundation and was echoed by Democratic and union leadership like Sen. Murray and AFL-CIO President Liz Shuler. It was repeated in more than a dozen national news outlets, including the New York Times, the Washington PostAxiosBloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, and MSNBC. As I reported at the time, leading experts quietly disagreed with the scope of the projected closures, but were staying quiet so as to not upset others in their child care coalition. And indeed, industry-wide collapse never followed, while more moms with preschool and school-age children subsequently joined the labor force. Jobs in the child care sector continued to grow, too.

Looking back, White House aides maintain they did all they could have done to reach a deal with Manchin on care policies, as evidenced by the fact that they were ultimately able to negotiate successfully with him on climate change.

Leading care advocates also deny any missteps. They say that, upon reflection, they are proud of all they have accomplished over the last four years, despite losing the bruising reconciliation fight. They point to wins like the new Biden administration rule to lower child care costs, a new law protecting nursing parents, and that care agenda policies have remained a top priority lawmakers regularly highlight.

“In the Build Back Better fight, the care community was able to get care policies out of the US House, even though that was not assured for quite a long time, and we lost by just one vote in the US Senate,” said Kristin Rowe-Finkbeiner, the executive director of MomsRising, a national advocacy group. “As a community we were punching above our weight. We did get care through the administrative level and through the House so what that means is we have to double down now.”

In a post-mortem of the Build Back Better fight published by the progressive think tank New America, care leaders interviewed similarly praised the coalition for being small and mighty. “While the outcome of the Biden administration’s Build Back Better (BBB) social agenda is widely known, much of the progress care advocates made given their minuscule financial resources is a big success story that deserves more attention,” the report said.

Though some have argued advocates erred in refusing to pick one or two policies to focus on, activists publicly maintain that they are ultimately stronger if they push multiple programs all together.

In their own post-mortem of the American Rescue Plan, the Century Foundation pointed to historic levels of funding for child care and home care as evidence that “a holistic framework across care movements and strategies is impactful.” The liberal think tank argued that trying to silo aspects of the care agenda from one another “creates a scarcity myth and a fight for resources and helps maintain unfair power structures.”

What care advocates see in the climate movement

Elliot Haspel, the author of Crawling Behind: America’s Child Care Crisis and How to Fix It, says part of the challenge of figuring out strategy is that child care advocacy does not have a single leader or single organization. “In some ways [this] means more voices can be heard, more small-d democratic, but it also can create challenges,” he told Vox, contrasting this with the 1990s, when the Children Defense Fund, and specifically its leaders Marian Wright Edelman and Helen Blank, “were basically the child care points of contact.”

Past legislative battles may offer insight: following the defeat of universal health care under President Bill Clinton and cap-and-trade for carbon emissions under President Barack Obama, advocates for health care reform and climate went through years of painful reflection and recalibration of their tactics and goals. To get legislation through the legislative process, leaders agreed, they’d have to change course.

Health care proponents had to figure out how to bypass a strong suspicion of socialized medicine. So, with the past failed health care push top of mind, lawmakers drafted the Affordable Care Act to allow for a market-based approach with industry buy-in. Meanwhile, climate advocates realized that they had overestimated the power of businesses in the GOP coalition An influential 2013 report by a Harvard scholar helped push the climate movement in its next decade to embrace grassroots activism, while practical experience led climate groups to negotiate more concertedly with Manchin in 2022 to get the IRA over the finish line.

The care movement has had no comparable recalibration, at least yet. If anything, top care leaders point to the climate movement not as a coalition that had to make tough strategic compromises but as an example of the power of big political spending and a commitment to fighting over many years. “What’s the difference between the climate change movement and the care movement?” Rowe-Finkbeiner, of MomsRising, asked in the New America report. “Tens of million dollars and several decades [of concerted organizing].”

The report noted that the top three environmental lobbying groups outspent care lobbying groups in 2021 and 2022 about three to one. In addition to investing more political dollars, the New America review recommended building a bigger coalition including more faith leaders and businesses, working with Hollywood to feature more diverse characters and storylines about caregiving, and getting serious about publicly battling the opposition, such as large industry groups that fight corporate tax increases.

An aide for Sen. Murray also pushed back on the idea that there’s not enough room to update ideas, noting their boss’s Child Care for Working Families Act, which has 42 co-sponsors, has evolved based on feedback, with newer changes including the expansion of eligibility and increased grants to providers.

“This was the product of countless discussions with other Senate offices, unions, policy experts, and other stakeholders,” the aide said. “Murray wanted to write a bill that could win the most possible support to actually get passed into law.”

Where things might go after the election

In interviews with advocates, aides and policy experts, I’ve tried to glean a clearer sense of what might happen with care policies should Harris win in November. Some activists declined to discuss hypothetical scenarios at all, saying they would not “negotiate against themselves” by publicly signaling what they might compromise on, but others were willing to get more specific.

Assuming Harris wins but lacks a Washington trifecta, the two most commonly cited ideas I heard were an expansion of the CCDBG program for low-income families — as that’s something Republicans generally support — and an expansion of the child tax credit, as that bipartisan program is also set to expire next December, so Congress will likely plan to reauthorize it in some form.

One area of tension will likely be over whether to expand the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit (CDCTC), which helps parents offset the cost of child care. Supporters of expanding the credit say it will make any deeper investments in the CCDBG go further, by making child care both more affordable and more accessible. Rates for CDCTC were last set in 2001, so they have not kept up with inflation and other increases in care costs.

“There is a monumental opportunity that should not be squandered,” said Radha Mohan, the executive director of the Early Care and Education Consortium, which is lobbying for the expansion of the CDCTC. Other progressive child care groups have opposed it, as they see it as further entrenching a child care financing system they want to ultimately move away from. The White House declined to endorse expanding the CDCTC in its latest budget, favoring a new child care entitlement instead, though Biden did support increasing the tax credit in the American Rescue Plan.

Aides say there is a real sense within the Democratic caucuses that lawmakers need to do something on care, since it was so clearly left on the cutting room floor in 2022. Some child care advocates worry that lawmakers might try to frame existing proposals to expand the CTC as sufficient. The National Women’s Law Center put out a brief last week on this concern, arguing that the CTC and child care should not be seen as interchangeable.

(There’s no doubt that many of these policies and acronyms can be confusing. In the first presidential debate, Biden mistakenly referred to the CTC, which can be used for any costs associated with raising kids, as a “child care tax credit” — causing stress among child care advocates that the two will continue to be conflated.)

Other care advocates are looking at the expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act next year as a fresh opportunity for advancing their own priorities, since Republicans likely will agree to new social spending in exchange for renewing their business tax breaks. The real question is how much money will exist to support care policies given other commitments. Harris, for her part, has already pledged to bring back the pandemic-era CTC and create a new CTC for newborns, two items that could cost up to $1.6 trillion over 10 years.

Some experts say lawmakers should not be afraid to go back to the drawing board. There is a tendency for groups to become “path dependent” on old ideas, even if there are better, more effectively designed policies out there.

Bruenig, for example, advocates for universal free child care along with home care allowances for those who don’t want to send their kids to day care. He believes these policies would be easier and fairer to implement than Democratic proposals aimed at capping costs at 7 percent of a family’s income. He also says there’s no reason all the Democratic paid leave bills have to exclude nearly a third of new parents. In the next session of the Maryland state legislature, Democratic Del. Vaughn Stewart, with Bruenig’s help, will be introducing a bill to close that loophole in Maryland’s paid leave law.

A divided government may force advocates to embrace more bipartisan solutions, and there are some signs that such work has already started. A new bipartisan working group of 30 child care experts and analysts convened throughout 2023 to try and find common ground, and new bipartisan working groups in the House and Senate also launched last year to focus on paid leave.

Whether advocates would push for some or all of their care priorities together remains an open question. Rowe-Finkbeiner stressed that it’s important “the policies move together,” saying it’ll take a combination of them to help families the most.

Sen. Murray is optimistic that if Democrats win the Senate, it will be a Democratic majority that’s “markedly different” from the last time, and one that’s ready to make serious, long-term investments in child care. But if they don’t win the Senate, Murray told me, Democrats will still act. “I will always talk to anyone and everyone to make progress on child care in every single way possible,” she said.

This work was supported by a grant from the Bainum Family Foundation. Vox Media had full discretion over the content of this reporting.

Florida criminalized homelessness. Then came hurricanes Helene and Milton.

Originally published in Vox on October 7, 2024.
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In the wake of Hurricane Helene, a devastating Category 4 storm that has ravaged the Southeast, leaders rushed to restore homes, infrastructure, and power for millions of people. And now, another life-threatening storm, Hurricane Milton, a Category 5, approaches the Florida coast. Amid the overwhelming destruction and the mounting chaos expected from these back-to-back storms, and a death toll of at least 227 people across six states, one group risks being overlooked in the scramble: the homeless population, those already vulnerable before the storm.

Disaster relief for people who were homeless prior to a hurricane has always been lacking, as FEMA, the main federal agency tasked with providing aid, has a policy that explicitly excludes those unhoused people from most forms of help, including housing and direct assistance. In recent years, the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) has stepped up to try to plug some of those gaps in social safety, but a new bill moving through Congress threatens these efforts.

These dynamics have grown more pressing as major hurricanes increase in frequency and the number of unsheltered Americans continues to grow. In June the US Supreme Court issued a landmark decision in Grants Pass v. Johnson, greenlighting local governments’ legal authority to clear out homeless tent encampments even if a city lacks any available housing or shelter for the unhoused person to stay in.

Since then, more jurisdictions have passed laws criminalizing homelessness, part of a broader effort to crack down on those sleeping outside. Just this month a new law in Florida — that bans sleeping on public property anywhere in the state — took effect. While the law includes exceptions during emergencies like major storms, those protections end when the hurricane order is no longer in place.

In practical terms, this means that when Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis or a county official lifts Florida’s emergency hurricane order, Floridians who were homeless before Helene and Milton — roughly 31,000 people — could face new criminal penalties. Local homeless advocates say there are countless questions and rumors circulating about how the new law will be interpreted and enforced in the wake of climate disasters.

Most people experiencing homelessness were aware the new anti-camping law was set to take effect, according to Martha Are, the executive director at the Homeless Services Network of Central Florida. “Some people are already trying to relocate their encampments to harder-to-find areas,” she told me in mid-September, about a week before Helene made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region.

Leaders like Are have little idea yet what to expect, and she hears unofficially that most jurisdictions are in wait-and-see mode, watching to see which city gets sued first and what the judge who reviews that lawsuit decides. (Under the new Florida law, any citizen or business can sue beginning in January if they feel the anti-camping ban is not being properly enforced.)

“It’s going to be a challenge for how leaders actually enforce these [anti-camping] laws, like if I’ve lost my house from a hurricane and I’ve lived in that town for a decade, will I be found in violation of the law and are they going to arrest me?” asked Noah Patton, the manager of disaster recovery at the National Low Income Housing Coalition. “These laws create significant complications, will really make aid more difficult to sort out, and what I have been saying is it makes a community less resilient to disasters.”

Moving homeless people to safety when a hurricane hits is difficult — and the anti-camping laws make that harder

It’s always a stressful scramble to try and reach homeless people when a hurricane is coming. “A lot of people have phones but they don’t have data, they aren’t getting texts,” said Kelly Young, the CEO of the Coalition for the Homeless of Houston and Harris County.

Typically, homeless outreach workers will try and go out to spread the word, and existing homeless shelters will work to make extra room, sometimes allowing people to sleep in places like the kitchen and hallways. Unhoused individuals can usually seek refuge in convention centers and public schools, or at newly-erected Red Cross emergency shelters. Some governments and nonprofits arrange transport for unhoused people to get indoors, while others leave it on the individual to figure out their own travel.

“We had up to 13,000 people at George R. Brown Convention Center after [Hurricane] Harvey and there was no distinguishing between the homeless versus people who had just lost their homes and needed a place to be,” said Larry Satterwhite, who leads the Houston Mayor’s Office of Public Safety and Homeland Security.

Not everyone experiencing homelessness gets the information they need, and not everyone living outside feels comfortable going to a shelter, said Eric Camarillo, the executive director of SALT Outreach, which works with unsheltered homeless people in Orlando and central Florida. Some people fear losing their personal belongings, while others may have had traumatic prior experiences at shelters.

“The face of homelessness is not the same as it was 50 years ago,” Camarillo added. “These are single moms who can’t afford day care, these are seniors in their 70s and 80s on fixed incomes who can’t afford their rent increases, and youth and young adults.”

The new anti-camping laws are intensifying the already tumultuous disaster response situation, as many homeless people living outside now try to become less visible to avoid jail time. The punitive laws are also expected to increase distrust between local government and homeless individuals, making it even more difficult for people to accept help if they are found.

“These laws exist, in my opinion, to push people away and out of sight which makes our job tougher,” said Eric Samuels, the president of the Texas Homeless Network. (Texas passed its statewide camping ban in 2021.) “And if people are badly hurt and they’re miles from public view because they don’t want to get a ticket, then emergency crews might not be able to get out to help.”

Disaster aid for those already experiencing homelessness faces an uncertain future

FEMA has the primary responsibility of providing disaster relief and works with states and local communities to manage emergency shelters, which are mostly run by the Red Cross. FEMA prohibits housing assistance from going to those who were already homeless — “because the need for housing was not caused by the disaster,” as their policy states — though homeless individuals may qualify for temporary transportation, funeral, child care, and medical aid.

FEMA policy does permit those who lived, pre-disaster, in “non-traditional forms of housing” like “tents, certain types of huts, and lean-to structures” to apply for a few months of rental assistance. But to receive this FEMA money, applicants must obtain verification of their pre-storm situation from “a credible or official source” which, according to Patton, makes accessing the aid virtually impossible.

“People do not apply,” he said. “It’s an exceptionally burdensome and administratively difficult process.”

Recently, in light of this, and after years of advocacy by housing organizations, HUD stepped up to establish the Rapid Unsheltered Survivor Housing (RUSH) program, using unspent funds from another emergency grant program. RUSH aims to help those who were homeless prior to a storm or other climate disaster, and the first grants were deployed in the wake of Hurricane Ian in 2022.

“We were very pleased to have the ability to launch the program because we see that people who are doubled up or experiencing homelessness during the disaster often don’t access FEMA funds or receive support from FEMA for long,” said Marion McFadden, HUD’s principal deputy assistant secretary for community planning and development. “By providing funds specifically for these situations, we’re filling in gaps.”

Related:


The other way HUD comes in is through its Community Development Block Grant Disaster Recovery program (CDBG-DR), which is a highly flexible, long-term disaster aid program that can be used to provide months of rental assistance and build new affordable housing well after FEMA is gone. However the program is not permanently authorized — meaning it relies on periodic appropriations from Congress, which are often delayed and insufficient. The Biden administration has called for Congress to permanently authorize CDBG-DR, and a bipartisan bill in Congress has called for the same.

Yet a separate bill currently moving through Congress seeks to move much of this longer-term disaster recovery work back over to FEMA, something low-income housing advocates believe will threaten those who are homeless before a hurricane.

“We are concerned that the bill, as written, may lead to the misuse of scarce federal recovery funds and prevent critically needed long-term recovery assistance from reaching low-income disaster survivors,” more than 35 national housing advocacy groups wrote in a congressional letter in late September.

McFadden, of HUD, said there’s “a real role” for her agency to play in supporting communities after disasters. “We are making billions of dollars in grants every year and we understand the unique needs of low-income people and of low-income housing,” she told Vox.

FEMA was noncommittal when I inquired about the agency’s plans for unhoused individuals during a disaster if Congress granted them new authority, or whether they’d reconsider their stance on aiding the pre-disaster homeless.

“If additional or new authority is passed by Congress and signed into law, FEMA would then develop guidance necessary to implement the new authority,” an agency spokesperson said. “FEMA would focus on supporting communities’ recovery in addressing needs resulting from a disaster and adhering to the intent of Congress in approving any new authority.”

As climate change escalates, communities across the US face increasing threats not only from hurricanes but also from heat waves, floods, and wildfires. Advocates have been petitioning FEMA over the last year to expand its criteria for disaster aid to include heat and smoke, emphasizing the need for more adaptable responses to these challenges. The nation’s severe shortage of affordable housing worsens the struggles of both the newly displaced and the long-unsheltered, and addressing these intertwined crises of climate resilience and housing stability has never been more urgent.

Update, October 7, 5:40 pm ET: This story was originally published on October 3 and has been updated with the current death toll of Hurricane Helene and new information as Hurricane Milton approaches the Florida coast.

Abortion groups are raising more money than ever. Where exactly is it going? 

Originally published in Vox on September 30, 2024.
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In some ways, there have never been more dollars flowing into abortion rights organizing, with philanthropies finally stepping up and more Americans activated over freedoms they previously doubted were really at stake. With hundreds of candidates vying for office and abortion rights on the ballot in 10 states, advocates have been busy raising money to spend through November. In June, the ACLU pledged more than $25 million to protect abortion rights; this was followed by $40 million weeks later from Planned Parenthood, then another $100 million from a new coalition of national groups.

But even as money flows toward protecting abortion rights, the financial burden of accessing abortion services has grown more severe, as bans force people to travel further and delay procedures until they are riskier and more expensive.

This strain is overwhelming the nation’s 100 abortion funds, which are mostly volunteer-led organizations that help people end unwanted pregnancies by paying for their abortions as well as practical support like travel costs — and the tab for this kind of aid quickly adds up.

Though cheaper methods to safely end a pregnancy have emerged over the past two years, many abortion seekers lack knowledge of these new, more affordable options. Funds and clinics also don’t always provide clear guidance on alternatives, driven by a mix of financial and legal self-interest, as well as a belief that in-person abortion care should be prioritized.

“What we’re seeing is patients are very comfortable embracing telemedicine as an option, but people within our movement have not been as flexible,” said Julie Kay, the co-founder of the Abortion Coalition for Telemedicine, which formed in 2022 after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

This past year, abortion funds say they’re fighting for their lives, unable to raise enough money to meet demand. A few are fundraising with new state-level partners, but increasingly, funds have had to tell callers they’ve run out of resources, leaving people to scramble for other options or carry unwanted pregnancies to term.

In general, all the money flowing to the 2024 election in the name of reproductive rights feels very siloed from their work paying for abortions, said Alisha Dingus, the development director at the DC Abortion Fund.

“There is an alarming disconnect between abortion funds … and large national organizations that are advocating for access,” a group of over 30 funds wrote collectively in the Nation in early August. “The national organizations … fundraise endlessly, siphon support from institutional funders and grassroots donors, capitalize on the Dobbs rage donations, and funnel that money into campaign bank accounts.”

Another challenge is messaging. Abortion funds have always positioned themselves as more radical and unapologetic when it comes to abortion care, priding themselves on avoiding stigmatizing language, whether that’s by using gender-neutral terms or elevating stories of people ending unwanted pregnancies for no traumatic, exceptional reason.

But given the increasingly desperate funding environment, these activists are being forced now to reconsider how they appeal to a public that is broadly supportive of reproductive rights but is still more moderate on abortion.

“In my experience on ballot campaigns, abortion funds have been incredibly challenging as partners in states that weren’t blue,” one leader involved with multiple post-Roe ballot measures, who requested anonymity to speak candidly, told Vox. “If you’re only communicating in very extreme messaging about abortion access, you’re not broadening your base of donors, you’re just talking to the 12 people who already agree with you. A lot of people who would love to donate to funds and probably don’t understand the need are turned off before they even get in the door by the language and behavior.”

These kinds of criticisms vex Dingus, who wrestles with whether abortion funds should be more “acceptable and digestible” to the public, as she put it.

“I came from a more traditional philanthropy space where you had to make sure you never hurt anyone’s feelings or made anyone angry because you might lose a dollar,” she said. “Abortion funds I’ve always found to be more liberated spaces where we can speak truth to power and push for change and not have to worry about one funder here or one funder there. But we are also seeing the reality of people not getting the care they need, people are going to be forced to give birth, so I think it’s tough.”

Tensions are rising within the movement as disagreements over a scarce resource — money — intensify. These battles among leaders reflect practical and ideological divisions about the future of abortion access and underscore the messy, unsettled questions that loom over activists more than two years after Americans lost their national right to end a pregnancy.

The 2024 election is dominating abortion-related donations

When it comes to donations this year, it’s mostly going to one place.

Despite earlier concern that abortion rights ballot measures would struggle to raise enough money, organizers say those fears have mostly not been realized, and tens of millions of dollars are flowing into the state contests as the election draws near.

These contests are “expensive and high-impact,” said Kelly Hall, the executive director of the Fairness Project, a national progressive group. “We are very grateful that organizations and in-state donors are seeing the opportunity with state ballot measures and are investing the resources that are needed to win.”

One newer member of the abortion rights political ecosystem is the House Majority PAC’s Reproductive Freedom Accountability Fund, a $100 million investment to mobilize voters in swing districts sympathetic to abortion rights. “In 2022, 42 percent of our ads mentioned abortion, and I think it will be that much again if not higher,” said C.J. Warnke, a spokesperson for the congressional PAC.

Still, making sense of the amount of abortion-rights money flowing into political campaigns can be difficult.

Some lower-profile elections, like two high court contests in Arizona, have struggled to raise money, despite their importance for reproductive rights. And in June Planned Parenthood, one of the largest abortion rights advocacy groups, announced it would be spending $40 million during the 2024 cycle, less than the group spent in either of the previous two election cycles. Their announcement came shortly after it announced it would also need to reduce its subsidies for abortion care through its Justice Fund program.

Planned Parenthood says it can spend less simply because other organizations are spending more and because candidates themselves are more emboldened on reproductive rights. But elections are more expensive now and there are more political contests to fund than during the midterms, so the explanation is puzzling. (The group also declined to share details of its Justice Fund or to direct patient assistance broadly, citing “disclosure policy” restrictions.)

In some ways, this is likely to be the last big year for spending on abortion rights ballot measures, simply because there aren’t many additional states that allow for such citizen initiatives. “It’s not an either-or” on funding, said Ashley All, who led the communications strategy for the winning Kansas abortion rights ballot measure in 2022“We have to do these ballot campaigns because if we don’t then people will lose access to care.”

Still, while national activists and fundraisers are spinning things in a more positive light, emphasizing that more money will be available to fund direct services soon, many local abortion fund leaders are skeptical things will really improve financially when election season ends.

According to Lexis Dotson-Dufault, executive director of the Abortion Fund of Ohio, no new donors contributed to the organization following the passage of Issue 1, the abortion rights ballot measure that prevailed in Ohio last year by a 13-point margin.

“We have seen nothing but an increase in need and we got no new funders from Issue 1,” she told Vox. “In 2022, we saw about 1,200 folks, in 2023 we saw about 4,500, and this year so far between February and August we’ve seen almost 4,000 people.”

Dingus, of the DC Abortion Fund, said election season has made their financial challenges more difficult. “It’s tough to see, not just the ballot measures but the Zooms for Harris that raised millions of dollars in 30 minutes,” she said. “It can be really demoralizing to see that and then look at our budgets and know we continually have to cut back and maybe will have to get rid of staff.”

Cheryl Wolf, an organizer with Cascades Abortion Support Collective in Portland, Oregon, said it’s been hard to convince the public that donating to small local funds over large political campaigns is a more reliable way to ensure their money directly supports abortion care.

“When they make their donations to national organizations, so much of it goes to overhead, salary, campaigning, advertising,” she told Vox. “Rather than directly into the hands of abortion seekers.”

This pressure has all been exacerbated by recent national funding cuts; since July, the National Abortion Federation, along with Planned Parenthood, announced they’d only be able to subsidize up to 30 percent of abortion costs, down from their previous cap of 50 percent.

Wolf described these cuts from the National Abortion Federation as “detrimental,” particularly because most of the collective’s money comes from small one-time or monthly donations from individuals. “We are definitely not raising enough,” she added, noting they bring in about $500 every month and spend about $9,000. “We’re definitely looking at running out of money in the next couple months if we don’t have some kind of miracle.”

As travel costs rise, some abortion rights leaders say the movement has been too focused on elevating travel for those living in states with bans.

Kay, of the Abortion Coalition for Telemedicine, formed her more critical perspective while working in Ireland when abortion was criminalized. “The Irish solution to abortion bans was travel, but not everyone has the privilege or means to travel,” she said. “It’s alienating, stigmatizing, and expensive.” Prioritizing travel today, Kay thinks, reflects a movement that hasn’t “pivoted to the reality of what we’re living in now” with more options and more restrictions.

A difference of philosophy — and why it matters

Across the abortion rights movement, leaders are grappling with how best to engage voters and donors while also debating how much compromise is acceptable in the pursuit of broader support.

In 2023, when Ohio activists were pushing for an abortion rights ballot measure, leaders with the Abortion Fund of Ohio were frustrated by compromises these ballot measure activists were willing to make. “I’m not really ever into hearing things about trimester limits or viability standards, or hearing language that’s very trauma-focused,” said Dotson-Dufault. “Something I say is a lot of the reason you feel the need to use that type of language is because we haven’t been doing the deep community destigmatization work.”

In other states, abortion fund staff and volunteers are experiencing similar discomfort. In South Dakota, a local abortion fund has publicly criticized the abortion rights ballot measure citizens will be voting on this November, even as the red state has a near-total abortion ban. Other funds are wrestling with messaging choices. “A lot of campaigns like Yes on 4 [the Florida abortion rights ballot measure] use gendered language, while we always use ‘pregnant people’ or ‘people who are pregnant,’” said Bree Wallace, the director of case management at the Tampa Bay Abortion Fund.

When I asked Brittany Fonteno, the president and CEO of the National Abortion Federation, how her organization balances their more bold, progressive rhetoric with their recent funding cuts to local affiliates, she said it comes down to “investing time and energy in educating people, and helping them to evolve their own perspective.” Fonteno then cited her own journey growing up in a more conservative and religious environment, and her path to abandoning abortion stigma. “It took time for me to evolve and become someone who is not pro-choice but pro-abortion, pro-reproductive freedom,” she said.

Yet rejection of terms like “pro-choice” from activists like Fonteno stands in sharp contrast to how most Americans who support reproductive rights feel about it. Election pollsters have also found that some of the most effective abortion rights-related messages with voters are the same ones that activists argue are too gendered, stigmatizing, and patronizing (like that the decision to end a pregnancy should be “between a woman and her doctor” or that “victims of rape and incest would be forced to give birth.”)

In 2022, under pressure from activists, the House Pro-Choice Caucus circulated new talking points that warned “choice” is “harmful language” for reproductive rights, and should be replaced with the “helpful” alternative of “decision.” This generated some ridicule, but other aides and leaders were upset that activists would seek to ditch the well-known and popular “pro-choice” label at such a high-visibility moment, and without real survey research to support it.

There are no simple answers to the movement’s future direction, though progressive activists rightly note that public opinion is increasingly shifting in favor of abortion rights. Some activists are wary about prematurely abandoning the long-held goal of restoring accessible in-person clinic care nationwide, while others worry that leaders’ refusal to adapt to new realities will come at the expense of pregnant people.

Wallace, of the Tampa Bay Abortion Fund, said that after Roe v. Wade was overturned, her fund received 755,000 individual donations, but by 2023, that number fell to 272,000. “People are donating more toward the election and Yes on 4 right now, and we all want Yes on 4 to pass, but people don’t understand that even if it does, people still don’t have money for abortion, people still don’t have ways of traveling to their appointments,” she said. “Next year is going to be all about holding people to account.”

How IVF exposed fissures in the Republican coalition

Originally published in Vox on September 26, 2024.

Donald Trump is struggling with female voters and occasionally acts like he knows it.

With the November election fast approaching, Republican political consultants have been bemoaning the fact that their presidential candidate continues to publicly boast about overturning Roe v. Wade — something a majority of Americans oppose. Trump’s openly anti-abortion pick for vice president, JD Vance, also continues to attract attention for his deeply unpopular insults of women who don’t have biological children.

These dynamics are exacerbated by the fact that the economy — typically Republicans’ strongest issue — continues to improve; the Fed recently cut interest rates and inflation has fallen to its lowest point in three and a half years, with gas and grocery prices plunging.

To help improve his chances, Trump has been trying to dispel fears. At the September presidential debate, when asked if he would veto a national abortion ban, Trump repeatedly dodged the question, insisting it wouldn’t be necessary since abortion rights are now under state control. This is only half-true: Trump is right that he’s unlikely to face a national abortion ban from Congress in the next four years.

But most anti-abortion leaders weren’t counting on that, anyway. The anti-abortion movement has been banking on more appointments of friendly federal judges and taking control of key federal agencies that could use executive power to heavily restrict reproductive freedom.

“We don’t need a federal abortion ban when we have Comstock on the books,” Jonathan Mitchell, the legal architect behind a 2021 law in Texas that effectively banned abortion, told the New York Times earlier this year. Mitchell was referring to the Comstock Act, an 1873 federal law that could prohibit anything associated with abortion from being sent in the mail. Such a ban could mean not only restricting abortion medication, the most common method used to end a pregnancy in the US, but also any medical equipment used during surgical abortion, like speculums, suction catheters, and dilators.

The Comstock Act was rendered moot by Roe v. Wade in the 1970s but never formally repealed, and now, with Roe gone, some conservatives, including Mitchell and JD Vance, are pushing for its revival. “I hope [Trump] doesn’t know about the existence of Comstock, because I just don’t want him to shoot off his mouth,” Mitchell added, urging anti-abortion groups to also “keep their mouths shut as much as possible until the election.”

Things seemed to be mostly going according to Mitchell’s plan, with Trump avoiding answering reporters’ Comstock Act questions and publicly insisting abortion was now a state duty. That is, until August, when Trump — seemingly more nervous about his election chances — announced on Truth Social that his administration would be “great for women and their reproductive rights.” He also finally told the media he would not use the Comstock Act to ban mailing abortion drugs, and on top of that, announced his administration would mandate health insurance companies cover the hefty cost of in vitro fertilization (IVF).

Trump’s new stances have not been clarifying or convincing enough for most voters — indeed, on the heels of him promising free IVF, he said he thought Florida’s six-week ban was too strict, and then announced he’d be voting against Florida’s proposed abortion rights ballot measure in November. That measure would legalize abortion up to viability to protect the patient’s health, as decided by their provider, and polls show most Floridians back it.

Still, Trump’s new rhetoric of (somewhat, sometimes) embracing reproductive rights has antagonized parts of his conservative base, who feel he’s taking the anti-abortion movement for granted and that he’s having his “Sister Souljah moment” with the segment of the electorate that helped deliver his victory in 2016. The immediate question is whether these conservatives will sit out in protest in November, and if they do, whether Trump can make up for it by drawing in more voters elsewhere. The larger, more enduring question is whether this portends an emerging split in the Republican coalition on the question of abortion, just a couple of years removed from the anti-abortion faction’s greatest victory.

Why Trump’s IVF announcement is causing problems with parts of his religious base

While opposition to abortion has been a fragile part of the GOP coalition for years, IVF emerged this year as a new point of tension among conservatives.

After Trump announced in late August that he’d back free IVF, anti-abortion groups immediately urged him to retract his stance. At first glance, it may seem puzzling that a faction of voters who identify as “pro-life” would oppose technology that helps people with infertility become parents. About 2 percent of births in the US are done through IVF, which involves fertilizing eggs outside of the body and then transferring embryos to a womb.

But the opposition makes more sense when IVF is understood as conflicting with “fetal personhood” — a core goal of a faction within the anti-abortion movement that seeks to grant fetuses (and embryos) full human rights and legal protections.

“Human embryos are created and discarded or frozen by dozens in most IVF procedures,” Matthew Yonke, a spokesperson for the Pro-Life Action League, told me. “It’s no way to treat human beings, and the federal government should not subsidize it.”

(Louisiana remains the only state to outright prohibit the destruction of embryos, requiring patients to either pay forever to store their unused embryos, or donate them to a married couple. Most states allow patients to decide what to do with any excess genetic material.)

Some social conservatives also lament that contemporary IVF treats parenthood like an individual right instead of a responsibility or privilege for committed couples, and others object to the ethical implications of sex selection and optimizing for certain characteristics, such as eye color or intelligence.

Ever since February, when Alabama’s Supreme Court issued its unprecedented legal decision that invoked God to claim frozen embryos count as “children” under state law, policymakers and prospective parents have been realizing how vulnerable IVF is in the United States, even as politicians scramble to assure voters it’s not actually at risk.

For religious conservatives who oppose IVF, the last seven months have provided a fresh opportunity to make their case against the assisted reproductive technology. In some states they’ve made political gains: the North Carolina Republican Party adopted a platform in June that opposes the destruction of human embryos. Also in June, the Southern Baptist Convention, the largest Protestant denomination in the US, approved a resolution against IVF.

Anti-abortion leaders are prepared to fight for their long-term goal of fetal personhood, just as they did for decades to overturn Roe v. Wade. In many ways, these new IVF battles are just beginning: This past spring, a supermajority of justices on Florida’s Supreme Court signaled openness to a future fetal personhood challenge, suggesting that “pre-born children” are “persons” entitled to the right to life under the Florida Constitution. Regardless of whether Trump wins in November, these fights over reproductive technology will continue to embroil conservatives and the Republican Party.

Fiscal conservatives are getting ticked off, too

It’s not just the ethics of IVF that are causing fissures — Trump’s promise that the government would foot the bill has also sparked concern among conservative budget hawks.

The average out-of-pocket cost per IVF cycle stands at $24,000, according to a federal fact sheet, or $61,000 in total per successful live birth, since people often need multiple IVF cycles. While Trump’s team has refused to provide any financing details for his plan, some experts believe it would require significant new Congressional spending.

Ira Stoll, a prominent conservative columnist, tried to make the fiscally conservative case for Trump’s IVF policy in the Wall Street Journal. He argued the proposal would be less expensive than it seems since the costs of low birth rates “far outweigh the costs” of adding IVF to insurance companies. “The roughly $15,000 price of an IVF procedure is nothing compared with the priceless potential of an individual human being,” Stoll added, though existing research suggests IVF would not significantly increase the birth rate.

However, for most conservatives concerned with federal spending and rising deficits, the government mandating taxpayer-funded IVF treatment feels like a bad joke. National Review editor Philip Klein argued that the expensive Trump proposal would amount to a significant expansion of Obamacare and drive up health insurance premiums for all.

Vance Ginn, the chief economist at the Office of Management and Budget during the Trump administration, came out to blast the IVF proposal. “I’m for IVF, as we’ve used it for two of our beautiful kids, but nothing is ‘free,’” he wrote on X. “Can we stop handing out things to win votes like it’s candy when we’re running $2T[rillion] deficits and not abiding by the limited roles outlined in the US Constitution?”

Fiscal conservatives in Congress have also been concerned. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) rejected the free IVF proposal on ABC News, saying there would be “no end” to its cost. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) was more restrained with NBC News. “I’m a little bit hesitant on an insurance mandate. Is there some other way that we could incent[ivize] these sort of coverages through the private sector?” he asked. “We got a lot of things we’ve got to pay for next year by extending the tax provisions.”

Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) opted to be less diplomatic, calling the idea “ridiculous.” The “government has no money,” he said. “We’re $2 trillion in the hole, so I’m not for asking the taxpayer to pay for it.”

Even before his promises for free IVF, fiscal conservatives were growing increasingly frustrated with Trump, as he’s been virtually silent on the mounting federal debt, and issuing new campaign pledges like ending taxes on overtime pay and Social Security benefits, and exempting tips from taxes. Trump’s disregard for deficit spending could turn off some of these budget hawks in November, too.

Will social conservatives stick with Republicans in the future? And will that even matter?

Evangelical voters were a critical part of Trump’s path to victory in 2016, and his campaign in 2020, and most political strategists say he’ll need to earn at least 80 percent of white evangelicals nationally to win in November.

A recent Fox News poll showed him at 75 percent with this group, a number that could sink lower given his recent flip-flops. Al Mohler, president of Southern Baptist Theological Seminary in Louisville, Kentucky, has been warning — in recent op-eds, speeches, and podcast interviews — that the Republican Party is making a huge mistake by potentially motivating religious voters to stay home. Mohler has been urging Trump to clarify how he’ll restrict abortion in the Oval Office, just as Trump promised evangelicals before that he would work to overturn Roe v. Wade if elected.

Tony Perkins, president of the right-wing Family Research Council, has been making a similar argument that Trump needs to give religious voters something to be genuinely excited about. “It’s just on the margins, but it’s the difference in many elections,” Perkins argued in Politico.

For now there’s no clear survey evidence on whether Evangelicals really are planning to stay home in November, though Lila Rose, a prominent anti-abortion activist, has been urging her followers to withhold their votes unless Trump changes his tune. But Mohler, for his part, said he’s likely to stick with Trump in November because he trusts that Trump will ultimately stack his administration with anti-abortion leaders, regardless of what he says on the campaign trail.

“I have a high degree of confidence that a lot of people in crucial roles in a Trump administration would reflect that pro-life sentiment,” he told the New York Times. “I believe the opposite about a Kamala Harris administration … I have to look at a longer-term strategy. And I think the most responsible pro-life figures in the United States think similarly.”

IVF in particular is popular in the US, with 70 percent of adults supporting access to the treatment. Even among Christian and Republican voters, clear majorities believe IVF access is a good thing.

That’s why, even as Republican lawmakers continue to vote against federal bills to protect access to IVF, they have been publicly stressing their support for the technology. Pennsylvania’s Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick is running on a $15,000 tax credit for fertility treatment, and in September, a conservative super PAC started funding a major ad campaign in support of IVF.

Public backing for abortion rights also continues to loom over Trump and the Republican Party; polls show voters have grown even more supportive of abortion rights than they were before the Supreme Court overturned Roe. Among women in particular, many say abortion rights are their top issue this November. A recent New York Times poll found that for women under 45, abortion is even more important to them than the economy. Another poll by Galvanize Action showed that 82 percent of white moderate women specifically plan to factor in a candidate’s stance on abortion when voting.

Whether this late-stage gamble by Trump to send mixed messages on reproductive rights pays off is anyone’s guess, but even if it does, the internal fights within the GOP coalition will likely remain — unresolved, festering, and ready to resurface after November.

Are Americans generous?

Originally published in Vox on September 17, 2024.
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For 20 years, experts have sounded the alarm on the decline of charitable giving in the US. Then came the pandemic, which led to a wave of new donations and volunteers to nonprofits. For some leaders, this was a sign that perhaps the retreat from philanthropy was reversing course.

But it’s clear now, according to a substantial new report released today by a group of nearly 200 philanthropic leaders, that Covid-19 did not bring about any lasting reversal of declining charitable giving — and many of the trends identified in the 2010s have only since accelerated.

Today, the number of donors to and volunteers with nonprofit organizations continues to decline, even though the total amount of money flowing to the nonprofit sector has gone up. In other words, more money is being given, but by fewer people.

These are some of the key takeaways from the report, authored by a group called the Generosity Commission. Over the past three years, this commission funded more than $2 million in research to better understand the state of giving and volunteering in America.

The report is among the most comprehensive surveys of the field. The last time such a broad assessment of philanthropy was published was in 1975, with the release of the Filer Commission, which fueled lasting reforms in nonprofit governance and tax policy.

This time, the Generosity Commission similarly recruited top researchers to better clarify US philanthropic trends.

It should be said that this project wasn’t led by disinterested parties. The Generosity Commission wants to figure out how to increase giving and volunteering to the more than 1.7 million nonprofit organizations across the United States, 88 percent of which have budgets less than $500,000.

The report’s findings highlight some of the key debates that have been mounting in philanthropy over the last decade: Why does giving and volunteering matter? What constitutes generosity and can it really be measured? Why is nonprofit participation declining?

Its takeaways are relevant for those grappling with how to make a difference, a topic that we’ve been covering at Vox and that I’ve personally been trying to think through. Last month, I published an essay exploring why I changed my mind about volunteering; the piece sparked a lot of discussion about what really “counts” when it comes to service. This new report adds to the broader debate I touch on in my essay about privileging certain types of generosity over others, and forces readers to consider the stakes of a diminished nonprofit sector.

The authors make the compelling argument that there are many social services we’ve come to take for granted that nonprofits will always provide. And leaders with the Generosity Commission suggest it’s too risky to expect the government, the business sector, or even informal acts of generosity to ultimately fill these roles.

They may be right. But other countries have much less robust nonprofit sectors while still providing social services, and so to convince a clearly skeptical US public, charitable groups will need to think harder about how they tell their story. The case for supporting nonprofits can’t simply be that nonprofits have historically assumed these responsibilities in America, or that Alexis de Tocqueville famously admired them and therefore we should stick to nonprofits out of tradition.

We’re facing something of a Rorschach test right now: Recently, the New York Times published a sobering article on the threat posed by declining volunteer paramedics. The Generosity Commission could argue that this situation perfectly encapsulates why it’s critical to motivate more people to step into these formal volunteering roles that have served American communities for decades. Yet others could reasonably say that in a country as wealthy as the US, we shouldn’t depend on volunteer labor to fill these jobs, and indeed, most other nations don’t.

The state of volunteering and giving, according to the Generosity Commission

Many nonprofits are still flush with cash, but not all nonprofits are experiencing a money boon. Some are receiving less money than they used to, and according to the Urban Institute, these are most likely to be small, community-based nonprofits — the type of groups most reliant on volunteers to support their mission and local contributions to balance their budgets.

Even for the organizations with ample funding, their donations increasingly come from a concentrated pool of wealthy donors. According to the Fundraising Effectiveness Project data included in the new report, 43 percent of dollars given to nonprofits in 2020 came from gifts of more than $50,000, up 11 percent from 2019.

In 2020, GivingTuesday reported that there was a 5 percent increase in charitable dollars from the previous year, reaching a record annual $471 billion. But by 2021, there were fewer total donors than there were in 2019. The Fundraising Effectiveness Project further reported that the number of donors dropped by 3.4 percent in 2023, after already having dropped 10 percent in 2022, and 5.7 percent in 2021. Most of these drops have been concentrated among those with lower levels of education, income, and wealth.

There’s similarly been a drop in the number of volunteers, even with the rise of virtual opportunities. AmeriCorps reported that 23 percent of the country formally volunteered in 2021, down from 30 percent in 2019. It’s the steepest drop since the agency started collecting data in 2002.

And this decline is taking a toll on organizations: Nearly half of nonprofit CEOs reported in 2023 that finding enough volunteer help was a major problem for them, up from 29 percent in 2003.

Okay, but why are people donating and volunteering less?

Perhaps it seems intuitive that people who make less money would be less likely to donate or volunteer. But research has shown that, at least historically, it’s the poor who donate more of their incomes to charity. The Generosity Commission suggests that while economic insecurity certainly is part of the story, cultural shifts and changes in habit formation are likely at play, too.

The Great Recession hastened this decline: US households donating to nonprofits fell from 65.4 percent in 2008 to 53 percent in 2016. Yet these downward trends continued even after the economy recovered. By 2018, the proportion of households giving fell below 50 percent, according to the Philanthropy Panel Study, leading some economists to argue that “shocks to income and wealth” cannot fully explain the drops we’ve seen since.

Millennials in particular give less today than previous generations did when they were at the same age and life stage. Some researchers speculate that delays in other traditional markers of adulthood, like marriage and buying a house, may have discouraged charitable behaviors.

Another leading explanation is declining religiosity. Americans who identify as religious are far more likely to donate to charity, but as of 2020, only 47 percent of Americans belonged to a church, synagogue or mosque, down from 70 percent in 1999. However, many Americans today identify as spiritual, and there’s some evidence that practicing spiritual activities like yoga and meditation are linked to giving and volunteering.

Other explanations include declining trust in institutions, broader social disconnection, and changing tax incentives. Some experts argue that a focus on courting high-dollar donors has sidelined smaller contributions, fueling a negative cycle in giving.

The report doesn’t give any firm answers, and emphasizes there’s much more to understand, especially when it comes to understanding informal giving.

What the Generosity Commission recommends

The commission makes nine recommendations to address giving and volunteering rates, some clearly heavier lifts than others.

To change the culture, the report recommends enlisting more public figures and leaders to talk about how they benefit from giving and volunteering, and to include young people and employers in the conversation. They also recommend that philanthropies issue marketing and development grants to nonprofits, mutual aid networks and giving circles.

The report recommends further research, particularly on the intersections with faith, social connection, and informal modes of generosity. (Jane Wales, the commission co-chair and vice president of Philanthropy and Society at the Aspen Institute, told me some Gates-funded research on informal giving is currently underway.) The report also says more needs to be done to help smaller, under-resourced nonprofits learn about emerging best practices.

The Generosity Commission makes two policy recommendations — one to sufficiently fund the IRS to regulate the nonprofit sector, and another to create a new non-itemized charitable tax deduction, to incentivize more Americans to give. (The deduction would make it easier for people who don’t typically itemize their taxes—particularly middle and lower-income households—to receive tax savings from charitable giving.) The authors note that we’re coming up on an opportunity for Congress to push these changes, given that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 will expire at the end of 2025.

“If we had some version of that [tax deduction], it would validate giving to [nonprofit charities] as the normative civic act,” Benjamin Soskis, a senior research associate at the Urban Institute and an editor of the Generosity Commission report, told me. “That could be a big ask of the [Tax Cuts and Jobs Act]. But it’s also possible that the days of nonprofits’ predominance within the charitable landscape are passing.”

There are bigger questions here

If the glory days of nonprofits are passing, what would come next?

Probably something worse, according to the Generosity Commission. It argues that the nonprofit sector remains the bedrock of American civil society, providing valuable goods and services that the government and the market has not and likely will not ever do.

To its credit, the commission repeatedly stresses appreciation for informal modes of giving and volunteering, like mutual aid networks and crowdfunding platforms. It also admits that its perspective is increasingly at odds with how many people, especially in younger generations, think about volunteering and giving. The researchers find that most Americans identify as generous, aspire to be generous, 74 percent of Americans self-identify as “generous” — and may not buy the claim that declining nonprofit contributions signal declining generosity.

Similarly, younger Americans report that they’d rather give directly to individuals, rather than to intermediary organizations. The evidence is mixed on whether political giving may “crowd out” charitable giving, and further study will be required to clarify whether forms of social engagement like protesting are used as substitutes for volunteering.

Woodrow Rosenbaum, the chief data officer of GivingTuesday, has pushed back on the idea that giving is in decline at all, saying that’s only true if our measurement yardstick is based on monetary gifts to nonprofits. Survey research from GivingTuesday suggests that younger Americans simply “have less rigid demarcations” between various modes of giving — whether that’s to nonprofits, GoFundMes, individuals, or political campaigns.

Still, the Generosity Commission believes those activities are unlikely to ever fully substitute for the daily work of nonprofits. When I asked Wales, the commission co-chair, about this question, she emphasized that the political appetite for building out the welfare state is just lower in the US than in other countries, and she suggested it would be difficult to build the kind of system they have in Europe.

Perhaps one of the most compelling arguments the report makes is that participation matters for healthy democracies. The commission asks us to consider whether declines in formal giving have contributed to mental illness and increasing levels of loneliness. (The authors suggest yes, but, again, conclude more research is needed.) One of its studies found that giving to a charity increases a person’s likelihood of joining one or more community groups by nearly 10 percentage points; volunteering increases it by a rather stunning 24 percentage points. This kind of data lends new weight to the idea that formally giving and volunteering could strengthen civil society — both collectively and individually.

The debate over the definition of generosity notwithstanding, one thing is clear: nonprofits increasingly depend on a limited number of rich benefactors. And ceding a sense of empowerment to improve the world to the ultra-wealthy is what keeps Wales up at night.

“People ask why does participation matter if there’s enough money to go around to nonprofits, why does it matter if it’s concentrated in the hands of just a few people,” she told me. “And from my own perspective, it’s got everything to do with the health of our society. The last thing you want is large portions of American society to feel they lack agency and are not part of the everyday decision-making in their own community.”

A plot of land in Southern California could be a game-changer for the housing crisis

Originally published in Vox on September 12, 2024.
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Soaring prices put purchasing homes out of reach for most people, but building new housing is slow and expensive.

So far, most solutions to this housing crisis have focused on subsidizing prospective buyers. But what if there were a way to make housing cheaper at every step of the process: cheaper to build, cheaper to buy, and still affordable for the next resident?

In San Bernardino, a sunny California city located about 60 miles east of Los Angeles, a first-of-its-kind experiment is underway to test these ideas on a single plot of land. Think of it as an affordable housing policy trifecta: three different strategies to bring down housing costs — all at once.

The first innovation is to streamline manufacturing. About 90 percent of homes are built on the land they rest on, but in San Bernardino, manufacturers assembled a modest house — 1,462 square feet, three bedrooms — in a factory before transporting it to its final destination on Ramona Avenue.

The existence of a new moderately sized single-family house is itself a coup when most new homes far exceed 2,000 square feet. Back in the 1940s, nearly 70 percent of new homes were 1,400 square feet or less. Today, that number hovers around 10 percent because rising land and construction costs — along with arduous permitting regulations and a preference for larger projects from lenders and investors — have made smaller homes nearly impossible to build using traditional production techniques.

In the case of San Bernardino, not only are smaller houses less expensive for residents, but factory manufacturing further lowers the price by allowing developers to complete projects more quickly. Manufactured homes cost 45 percent less per square foot than their “site-built” counterparts, according to Freddie Mac.

The second innovation is an 800-square-foot accessory dwelling unit (ADU) located on the same plot of land, about 20 feet away from the house. The matching cream-colored unit provides two more bedrooms and bathrooms to another family, below market rate. In other words, the ADU increases affordable housing without requiring additional land, making more efficient use of the space.

The third innovation: the land itself is owned by a local affordable housing development group, which is using a community land trust to ensure that both the manufactured house and the ADU remain reasonably priced for generations. The community land trust, in effect, limits how much the homeowners could ever resell the property for when they’re ready to move on.

Dora Davila, a 42-year-old medical lab technician born and raised in San Bernardino, recently moved with her three children to the new manufactured home on Ramona Avenue. Her family had been living in an apartment, and despite months of searching, could find no houses available that were affordable.

“We were looking at mobile home parks but, the thing is, none of them had a yard and I wanted space for my kids,” she said.

Davila struck gold one day when she overheard a coworker talking about their sister, who had moved into the new ADU on Ramona Avenue this past winter. The developers were now looking for a family for the adjacent house. Davila immediately reached out to the housing development group, Neighborhood Partnership Housing Services, Inc.

“I was in the right place at the right time,” she told me. “It seemed too good to be true — there’s really no place that we could find something in our budget for our family.”

Dora Davila and her children outside their new home.

Dora Davila and her children outside their new home.Dora Davila

Neighborhood Partnership Housing Services had led a few other projects in southern California using factory-built housing, but never before on a community land trust. They broke ground in December 2022, and despite some construction delays, Andy Lopez, the project manager, suspects it would have taken at least nine more months to build on Ramona Avenue should they have tried to go the traditional site-built route. (It took about a year, but they’re estimating future projects could be completed in four to six months.)

Already, one other California city is looking to replicate the San Bernardino model, and federal housing officials are excited by the idea. The lower-priced houses are built to meet the construction standards set by the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), meaning they get special financing options, and can be produced more efficiently at scale.

“Manufactured homes built into the HUD code are special because they are the one truly reliable means we have of lowering construction costs for new homes,” said Dan Hardcastle, a special policy adviser at HUD.

In August, HUD announced it would be expanding the types of housing units that could be built under its code, paving the way for manufactured duplexes, triplexes, and fourplexes.

Lopez says their goal is to combat misperceptions of manufactured housing, and to “show the community how attractive factory-built housing has become.” They know there’s still a stigma; many believe factory-built homes are dingy, clunky trailers on wheels, not regular places that look like any other home in a traditional neighborhood.

A local government caught wind of the idea

Palm Springs, California is a well-known travel destination and a luxurious retirement spot, drawing wealthy retirees from other expensive cities who have helped drive up housing prices to well above a million dollars on average.

But the average household income in Palm Springs is just about $67,000, making it very difficult for those who work in the city’s hospitality and tourism industries to buy homes.

Ariel Tolefree-Williams is an affordable housing administrator for the city, hired in early 2023 to launch new projects. She learned about the community land trust/manufactured housing pilot happening about 55 miles southeast in San Bernardino and wondered if Palm Springs could offer up its own vacant land for this model. She got in touch with Neighborhood Partnership Housing Services, and now the city is moving forward with projects on three plots of city-owned land, subdivided to build six manufactured single-family homes. Each home will rest on a community land trust also owned by the city, and be sold for roughly $170,000 to $200,000, a much more doable price for prospective families. If the project is successful, then Palm Springs plans to build more homes on other vacant properties.

A photo of a modest single-story home with carport and a front yard.

The accessory dwelling unit (ADU) at the Ramona Avenue Gateway demonstration project.NPHS Inc. and NPHS Community Land Trust

Tolefree-Williams said the projects allow the city to do something useful with its vacant single-family lots. Most housing developers are less interested in those, she explained, because they’re focused on bigger residential projects that can yield greater returns.

Some local residents initially objected when they heard manufactured homes were coming to Palm Springs. But Tolefree-Williams said concerns waned when constituents learned more about the building materials and the solar energy components. “We’re going to do a lot of community meetings and outreach in September to make sure folks understand it,” she added.

Challenges to expanding the model

A big barrier to expanding this model is the restrictive zoning codes written long ago to exclude factory-built homes from most areas.

“There are a lot of communities around the country that place restrictions on manufactured housing,” said Hardcastle, the special policy adviser at HUD. “I think you’re seeing this take off in California because they just have such high costs for purchasing and constructing homes.”

In other words, the state’s desperation has created an openness to unconventional ideas. But even in California there can be reticence to trying new things.

“There can be a lot of hold-up with obtaining various permits from the city, partly because they don’t really understand manufactured housing placed on permanent land — they’re used to it going into a [trailer] park,” said Jesse Ibarra, the chief business officer of Neighborhood Partnership Housing Services. “So we’ve had to do a lot of education with the permitting process.”

Another challenge can be finding enough special licensed contractors (known as c47 contractors) qualified to assemble manufactured homes to national standards.

Some people may be less enthusiastic about buying a house on a community land trust, since it would deny them the chance to maximize the money they could earn as their house increases in value. However, while community land trusts cap the amount of profit a homeowner can generate, owners still get to keep whatever they pay down on the mortgage when they sell.

“Some people see it as glorified rentership, but most folks see it as a much better deal than renting,” said Ibarra. “It can be a stepping stone to a bigger home, and you can save that money instead of giving it all to a landlord.”

While this San Bernardino pilot is now underway, there are some remaining kinks to iron out.

Neighborhood Partnership Housing Services plans to collect rent for the first few years and then eventually sell at least the single-family house to Davila, once they recoup their development costs. Their task will be to figure out exactly how to structure the agreement. Would Davila, or whoever else lived in the single-family house, also own the adjacent ADU and then lease that out to whomever they like? Or should that be kept under Neighborhood Partnership Housing Services’s purview? Put differently, should the first-time homeowner also become a landlord, or is that too complicated? And how does the community land trust piece fit in, if there are two units on one parcel? “We’re figuring all that out now,” said Lopez, the project manager.

Davila understands she’s part of a housing experiment. She’s just happy to have a comfortable place her family can finally call home.

“The noise outside the windows, we don’t hear anything,” she said. “I haven’t slept this well in such a long time.”

Why I changed my mind about volunteering

Originally published in Vox on August 26, 2024.
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Last fall, a reader asked me what they could really do, as one person, to aid people living on the streets. “I often feel helpless to enact change,” they wrote.

I’d been covering homelessness in America and knew that even the sprawling support organizations that have been working on outreach for decades had failed to end the crisis. My mind immediately went to systemic solutions, like voting for candidates who prioritize building more housing, or supporting efforts to loosen zoning codes.

But when I called experts, their answers surprised me. Some of our ideas overlapped, but many of their suggestions were ones I had admittedly not entertained: passing out socks or hand-warmers, donating items like sleeping bags to local shelters, or giving office supplies and bus passes to nonprofits serving unhoused people.

The reporting left me uneasy. Why did I think only about structural change and disregard more immediate help? And why don’t I do more of those day-to-day charitable things, or know many people who do, either?

I did growing up. I have clear memories of bagging meals at food pantries, of cleaning up parks, of Walking for the Cure. I sold lemonade for Darfur and baked brownies for victims of Katrina. In Hebrew school, I learned about giving tzedakah, a form of charity, and our obligation to “repair the world.”

But over time, those childhood activities started to look, well, childish. My coming of age in the 2010s coincided with critiques of individual action that were gaining prominence in media, politics, and academia — overlapping with a growing national focus on inequality and the climate crisis. It was the era of Occupy Wall Street and Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign, and our whole country grew more fluent in rebukes of billionaires and plutocracy.

Different arguments began to emerge: Volunteering, donating, and modifying one’s personal behavior were, at best, unproductive; at worst, they were harmful distractions from the change we really need. Be wary of those tote-bag shoppers at Whole Foods, championing recycling and reducing one’s carbon footprint. Didn’t they know that BP coined the idea of the “carbon footprint” to shift blame off its own oil production? Didn’t they understand that “lifestyle politics” was not the answer? Volunteering or bake sales didn’t threaten the status quo. They were what people in power wanted you to be doing.

Real social change would come only from mass protest and collective pressure on governments and corporations. It didn’t hurt that such protests against poverty, police brutality, and rising global temperatures were also exciting, and seemed to offer young people better and more visible ways of making a difference.

As a left-leaning college student, I was persuaded by leaders who warned that personal consumer choices would never amount to real social change. I also grew familiar with arguments by activists and intellectuals that nonprofits were too often complacent and even disincentivized to solve real problems, since doing so could threaten their own funding streams. Contributing my time and money to this “nonprofit industrial complex” would be a mistake. Cutting checks wouldn’t change anything other than the balance in my savings account. For real social progress, we’d need systematic policy shifts, comprehensive legislation, and political power.

Since I received the reader’s note about homelessness last fall, I’ve been thinking more about the cost of all this cynicism. Were the arguments against individual action even helpful?

I also started to wonder if these beliefs contributed to the American “friendship recession” and loneliness crisis I kept hearing about. Back in 2000, in his book Bowling Alone, political scientist Robert Putnam highlighted declines in American church attendance, volunteering, civic associations, and team sportsit seems our “social cohesion” had only gotten worse since then. Gen Z and millennials volunteer at lower rates than adults born in earlier generations, even though there is pretty overwhelming research that volunteering and donating makes people happier, and boosts their self-esteemphysical health, and lifespan.

It’s not considered socially acceptable to tout personal benefits derived from charitable acts. It’d be unusual to hear volunteers say they’re going to a soup kitchen to improve their self-esteem. Perhaps this is because those gains suggest that there are more selfish motivations for behaviors we want to think of primarily as selfless. But wealthy philanthropists don’t seem shy about citing their self-interest, and often say their humanitarian work leaves them with deep feelings of pleasure, optimism, and agency.

It struck me as rather sad that those of us who are not billionaires may have convinced ourselves that volunteering or fundraising was mostly a waste of time.

When did I become someone who placed such exhausting value on optimizing my time, anyway? It suddenly felt much more arrogant than altruistic. Convenient, and uncaring.

Perhaps most importantly, had distancing ourselves from charity and service made the world a better place? Has it made my own life better?

A few developments helped sour so many in my left-leaning generation on individual action.

The climate movement over the last 15 years played a leading role, rejecting solutions based on individual responsibility, and emphasizing the limits of forgoing meat or driving hybrid cars. Activists organized worldwide youth climate strikes and pipeline protests, focusing the public’s attention on governments, oil companies, and fossil fuel lobbyists.

In the 2016 presidential primary, where he captured over 70 percent of the Democratic youth vote, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders took aim at “corporate polluters” driving the climate emergency. And perhaps no claim had more cultural influence than the widely shared, though misleading, statistic that just 100 companies were responsible for 70 percent of the world’s emissions.

There was also a largely successful effort to link curbing climate change with anti-capitalism. The 2011 Occupy protests got an even bigger boost following Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century, published in English in 2014. (Vox called it “the most important economics book of the year, if not the decade.”) Naomi Klein’s influential book This Changes Everythingalso published in 2014, made the case that capitalism itself was an existential threat, that saving the planet would not be possible without overhauling the economic order.

In many ways, the growing emphasis on collective action felt clarifying, righteous, and long overdue. Student debt activists who emerged from Occupy helped millions of people process their feelings of shame and guilt over falling victim to predatory loans. New and influential left-wing outlets, like Jacobin, helped shape my generation’s consciousness and inspire us to demand more from those in power.

At their best, these collectivist messages inspired hope, agency, and empathy — spelling out a concrete playbook for a more just planet. At their worst, though, they fueled despair, cynicism, and nihilism, promising a better world only if near-impossible political changes were made, and fast. Social and economic conditions were characterized as terribly as possible, to galvanize more people to upend them. Even those who weren’t necessarily looking to foment a revolution contributed to growing negative attitudes around individual action. The Effective Altruist movement, for example, argued that most charities were wasteful and ineffective, save for some rare exceptions.

recent Harvard Institute of Politics poll found that young people are far more fearful than hopeful about the future: They worry about the moral direction of the country, don’t think their vote will make a real difference, and don’t volunteer for community service. It’s not that people today are choosing to protest instead of recycling; it’s that in our current environment, many people are doing neither. Despite all the attention on collective action and solidarity, many young adults are isolated and pessimistic about social change.

I set a New Year’s resolution to volunteer. Here I was, a self-motivated journalist with professional research skills; finding charitable work I could donate my time to shouldn’t have been too hard.

But it was more difficult than I expected. I’m not a member of a faith-based organization, neither my workplace nor my union organizes volunteer events, and my initial inquiries to nonprofits through volunteermatch.org went ignored. Lacking something I could easily plug into, I felt the poverty of my institutional connections in a new way. Robert Putnam would be nodding sagely, I thought.

Finally, I stumbled on something called a “giving circle,” where people donate money collectively, mostly to local nonprofits. It resembled a book club but for philanthropy, and I found one focused on women and children in the DC area.

The full group, roughly 250 people, convenes annually to vote on donating their pooled membership funds, though those who want to be more involved can participate in subcommittees that review grant applications to help narrow down the list. Since I report on housing, I decided to join the housing subcommittee and our group of roughly 20 began meeting weekly on Tuesday nights. ​​It was unfamiliar work, but I appreciated it and all the women involved who took the reviews so seriously. I learned about extraordinary groups in the DC area, like Together We Bake, which has trained hundreds of women in food production, and SafeSpotDC, which helps victims of child abuse.

I also started reading books on volunteering, grasping for new ways to make sense of what I was feeling. I read in Arthur Brooks’s book, Who Really Cares, that secular liberals like myself are stingier givers — less likely to donate to charity or volunteer than the general population, and much less likely to donate or volunteer than religious conservatives. The larger decline in organized religion loomed over this research.

“For many Americans, political opinions are a substitute for personal checks,” Brooks writes. He even observed that proponents of income redistribution were less likely to give blood. “If everyone in the population gave at the same rate as government aid advocates, the supply would drop by about 30 percent,” he reported.

I squirmed when I read this. I’d never given blood. I found a study that said among first-time blood donors, the most frequently cited reason for giving was “influence from a friend.” I couldn’t think of anyone encouraging me to donate, but that felt like a weak excuse.

Around the same time, the Red Cross declared an emergency blood shortage; donors had dropped by 40 percent over the last two decades. With Brooks’ book fresh in my mind, I decided to sign up. In early February, I went downtown to a blood donation center; the whole thing was relatively quick, and I felt happy when I left.

I caught a charitable bug. None of this was hard, I realized. I just hadn’t prioritized any of it. I found a local homeless organization that had an Amazon wish list of needed items. I sent them tampons, pads, wipes, underwear, and hand-warmers, and chided myself for not having done such easy things sooner.

The US has long been defined by its culture of volunteerism. When French philosopher Alexis de Tocqueville came to America in the 1830s he marveled at the many civic groups, later arguing that such volunteer organizations were integral to American democracy. Our bustling nonprofit sector would become a global symbol of entrepreneurialism and freedom.

It’s become common to say this vibrant civic fabric has since frayed. America is hanging out less. Our “social fitness” in shambles. But over the last year, I’ve found plenty of data that complicates this narrative.

Volunteer rates have not fluctuated very much over the last 75 years. There were declines in the 1980s, then surges following the 9/11 attacks and again during the Trump presidency. Researchers find mixed evidence that social capital is declining, though there’s more consensus that volunteering itself has become more episodic and time-limited than before. Nonprofit donations are down, but crowdfunding contributions keep soaring.

Some scholars say the Bowling Alone thesis was always missing the forest for the trees, that Putnam’s analysis privileged the kinds of activities white people of means were most likely to do.

“You had the largest immigration rights mobilization in 2006 ever, and then the white people were all reading Putnam,” Erica Kohl-Arenas, a professor of American Studies at the University of California, Davis, told me. “Numbers are not down in terms of people as part of associations, groups, or affiliated networks, but they might be down in terms of those who say, ‘I’m going to go look at the Yellow Pages to do five hours of service a week.’”

In contrast to the Yellow Pages form of service, so-called informal volunteering — meaning unpaid acts of service not coordinated through legal nonprofits — is harder to track, practiced more by communities of color, and almost never included in official counts of philanthropy.

“There’s lots of volunteering that doesn’t involve an organization,” said Mark Snyder, the director of the Center for the Study of the Individual and Society at the University of Minnesota. “When neighbors on a block shoot a message to your group text asking if someone can keep an eye on your kid, or bring over a meal, these things aren’t considered volunteering. But do you get paid for it? Do you get a sense of benefit by helping?”

Paul Schervish, a retired sociologist who directed the Center on Wealth and Philanthropy at Boston College, spent his career urging colleagues to take interpersonal and intra-family caregiving more seriously. He noted that while charitable giving is measured at roughly $500 billion annually in the US, remittances to relatives in poorer countries exceed $100 billion per year.

“None of those payments are included in what we talk about when we talk about philanthropy,” he told me. “Furthermore, Hispanics rank lower on charitable giving than other ethnic groups, but part of that is they are offering their homes up to family and living with extended family members so much more often, and carrying out these remittances. Care for each other, and even within your own family, is something that we don’t pay attention to.”

Schervish argues that a proper understanding of philanthropy has always been more vast than the way Putnam and conventional theorists have sliced and diced it. It should encompass both informal aid for friends and family, and acts of service for people more distant from you. Look no further than the Greek word philia, he says, referring to non-romantic love, that shares the same root as our modern word philanthropy.

Philia or friendship love, for Aristotle, extends out in concentric circles from the family to the entire species,” Schervish has written. “Friendship love is a relation of mutual nourishment that leads to the virtuous flourishing of both parties.”

Or put differently, rather than debate whether acts of philanthropy are motivated by selfishness or selflessness, or whether it “counts” if it’s service for your aunt versus your neighbor versus a child in Africa, Schervish encourages thinking about donors, volunteers, and all caregivers as people who take action in connection with others, who “view others in need as familial.”

I took the point that the popular view on social cohesion may have oversights. But I couldn’t shake the feeling that people today are feeling more despair, especially younger people.

I know firsthand that many Americans are overwhelmed by negative news stories, which compound in exhausting ways. It’s become far too hard to know what’s true, and all the contradictory information leads some to give up trying to make sense of the world altogether. The proportion of readers who say they avoid news is close to an all-time high.

Volunteering wouldn’t solve these problems, but given what we know about volunteering’s benefits, it seems it could certainly help. One University of Oxford researcher surveyed over 45,000 employees whose companies offered wellness benefits like massage classes, coaching sessions, and mindfulness workshops. The only option that seemed to actually have a positive effect on well-being, the study found, were those jobs that provided workers with opportunities for charity or volunteering.

Volunteers help bag to-go meals at Catherdral Kitchen on August 21, 2013, in Camden, New Jersey. Cathedral Kitchen is a multi-service soup kitchen that has been serving the Camden homeless community since 1976. They serve between 300 and 600 dinners each night, as well as offering biweekly dental services, and periodic medical and legal services as well.Andrew Burton/Getty Images

A friend from my giving circle pointed out that the vast number of activities billed as self-care are pricey beauty treatments, boutique fitness classes, and other ways to “treat” ourselves. They all tend to advance the idea that feeling better, and even simply feeling good, is found in helping oneself rather than each other.

Still, it can be harder for young people today to volunteer, Snyder, from the University of Minnesota, told me. “Young people are scrambling more than cohorts before to make a living, making ends meet through multiple jobs,” he said. “There are fewer discretionary hours available in a day.”

I reached out to the Making Caring Common Project at Harvard’s Graduate School of Education. In 2014, it found that a large majority of American teenagers value personal achievement and happiness over caring for others, priorities they felt their parents also shared. Richard Weissbourd, who directs the center, told me they’ve re-surveyed youths several times over the last decade and found similar results. Teens consistently rank happiness and personal achievement most highly, and caring for others and concern for the common good at the bottom.

“The irony of course is that by encouraging everyone to prioritize individual success and happiness, people are getting further from the kinds of activities and mental frameworks that drive satisfaction, fulfillment, community, and peace,” Weissbourd said.

While most news stories on mental health tend to focus on youth struggling in middle and high school, Weissbourd said his research has him worrying most about people ages 18 to 25, who he finds doing “twice as badly” as younger teens. “There’s a lot of apocalyptic thinking and not a lot of action there,” he said. “It’s like a deep tiredness, a feeling like people are in deep winter.”

Meanwhile, though the climate crisis drove people like me to be more distrusting of calls for individual action, some climate leaders have been calling for a different approach. More activists now stress that systemic and individual change should be understood as two sides of the same coin, and that individual action can be necessary for building sustainable, transparent political movements.

“A fixation on system change alone opens the door to a kind of cynical self-absolution that divorces personal commitment from political belief,” Jason Mark, the editor of Sierra magazine, wrote in 2019. “This is its own kind of false consciousness, one that threatens to create a cheapened climate politics incommensurate with this urgent moment.”

In his book Giving Done Right, Phil Buchanan, the president of the Center for Effective Philanthropy, refers to a longstanding debate over whether it’s useful for donors to spend money on alleviating effects of problems, rather than attacking the problems’ underlying causes. Philanthropy certainly has some great victories in funding “root” solutions, but Buchanan urges against the mentality that only permanently eradicating a problem is worth doing. “You shouldn’t assume that a focus on roots is necessarily superior,” he writes. “Trimming branches is also important.”

In a way, it can feel safe to distrust the value of individual action. Being wary of philanthropy and charitable groups that promise to better the world resonates with the skepticism I’ve been trained to have, professionally and culturally. It also allows me to avoid making sacrifices; there’s no real vulnerability or bets required.

But as time goes on, and as I think about the family I might one day raise, I’m coming to appreciate the value of letting go and taking gambles on hope, as long as they point generally in the moral direction I want to go.

With all these questions swirling in my head, I cold-emailed a local rabbi. She offered to meet and pointed me to a story in Exodus about Jews who agreed to accept the Torah from God before really knowing what was in it. “Naaseh v’nishma,” the Israelites said, which roughly translates to “we’ll do, and then we’ll understand.” The lesson, the rabbi told me, is about diving in with imperfect information, of learning through doing.

Schervish, the retired sociologist, thinks I should worry less about carving time outside of my regular routine to volunteer, and to count acts of service I take for my friends, partner, colleagues, and others just as much as philanthropy organized through 501c(3)s.

“Meeting the true needs of others is how you nourish somebody, but what that nourishment is, and what those true needs are — we’re always going to find people debating about that,” he told me. “And you’re going to have debates within yourself. But it’s always the right question.”

This was his gentle reminder that determining how to live morally requires wrestling that is messy, personal, and evolving. I haven’t figured it all out yet. But I don’t want imperfect information to stop me from diving in, now.

Naaseh v’nishma, I signed up to donate blood again.

US teacher strikes were good, actually

Originally published in Vox on August 25, 2024.
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Few things have bedeviled education policy researchers in the US more than public school teacher strikes, driven by educators on the vanguard of resurging labor activism. While union membership nationwide continues to decline, nearly one in five union members in the US is a public school teacher — and their high-profiledisruptive strikes generate significant media attention and public debate.

But do these strikes work? Do they deliver gains for workers? Do they help or hurt students academically?

Answering these questions has been challenging, largely due to a lack of centralized data that scholars could use to analyze the strikes. The Bureau of Labor Statistics used to keep track of all strikes and work stoppages across the country, but since its budget was cut in the early 1980s, the agency has only tracked strikes involving more than 1,000 employees. Given that 97 percent of US school districts employ fewer than 1,000 teachers, the majority of teacher strikes are not federally documented.

Now, for the first time ever, researchers Melissa Arnold Lyon of the University at Albany, Matthew Kraft of Brown University, and Matthew Steinberg of the education group Accelerate have compiled a novel data set to answer these questions, providing the first credible estimates of the effect of US teacher strikes.

Their data set — which covers 772 teacher strikes across 610 school districts in 27 states between 2007-2023 — took four years to compile. The three co-authors, plus seven additional research assistants, reviewed over 90,000 news articles to plug the gaps in national data. Their NBER working paper, published on Monday, provides revealing information about the causes and consequences of teacher strikes in America, and suggests they remain a potent tool for educators to improve their working conditions.

Teacher strikes lead to significant wage increases on average, regardless of length

By and large, teacher strikes in the US are not common, nor are they lengthy work stoppages. The median number of strikes per year over the 16-year study was 12.5, with the typical strike lasting just one day. Sixty-five percent of strikes ended in five days or less. Their longest identified strike was 34 days in Strongsville, Ohio in 2013.

Almost 90 percent of the teacher strikes identified involved educators calling for higher salaries or increased benefits, and the researchers found that, on average, strikes were successful in delivering those gains. Specifically, the strikes caused average compensation to increase by 3 percent (or $2,000 per teacher) one year after the strike, reaching 8 percent, or $10,000 per teacher, five years out from the strike.

More than half of strikes also called for improved working conditions, such as lower class sizes or increased spending on school facilities and non-instructional staff like nurses. The researchers found that strikes were also effective in this regard, as pupil-teacher ratios fell by 3.2 percent and there was a 7 percent increase in spending dedicated to paying non-instructional staff by the third year after a strike.

Importantly, the new spending on compensation and working conditions did not come from shuffling existing funds, but from increasing overall education spending, primarily from the state level.

That these strikes were effective is notable, particularly since labor strikes overall have not been associated with increases in wages, hours, or benefits since the 1980s. The study authors suggest strikes among public school teachers may be a more “high-leverage negotiating tactic” than other unionized fields because teachers can be less easily replaced by non-unionized workers or tech automation.

Perhaps surprisingly, the researchers find no relationship between whether a strike is short or long in terms of the effect it has on teacher salary.

Lyon of the University at Albany thinks that part of why teachers may be so successful in achieving such significant increases is because teacher strikes can send public signals in ways other labor strikes often can’t.

“Because education is such a salient industry, even a one-day strike can have a big impact,” she told me. “News media will pick it up, people will pay attention, and parents are going to be inconvenienced. You have these built-in mechanisms for attracting attention that other types of protest do not.” Another study she co-authored with Kraft earlier this year found that teacher strikes more than double the probability of US congressional political ads mentioning education, underscoring their power in signaling the need for educational change.

Students were not academically harmed by the strikes

Previous research on teacher strikes in ArgentinaCanada, and Belgium, where work stoppages lasted much longer, found large negative effects on student achievement from teacher strikes. (In the Argentina study, the average student lost 88 school days.)

In contrast, the researchers find no evidence that US teacher strikes, which are much shorter, affected reading or math achievement for students in the year of the strike, or in the five years after. While US strikes lasting two or more weeks negatively affected math achievement in both the year of the strike and the year after, scores rebounded for students after that.

In fact, Lyon said they could not rule out that the brief teacher strikes actually boosted student learning over time, given the increased school spending associated with them. A recent influential meta-analysis on school finance found that increasing operational spending by $1,000 per student for four years helped student learning.

It’s possible higher wages could reduce teacher burnout, or the need to work second jobs, leading to improved performance in the classroom. Still, Lyon explained, it’s also possible that increased spending on teachers would not lead to higher student test scores, if wage gains went primarily to more experienced teachers, or to pensions, or if teachers were already maximizing their effort before the strike.

Strikes were more common in conservative, labor-unfriendly areas

Overall, the researchers found that teacher union density has fallen more sharply than previously recognized. According to federal data, 85 percent of public school teachers reported being in a union in 1990, falling to 79 percent in 1999, and then to 68 percent by 2020.

“As someone who studies unions, that statistic alone is still pretty surprising to me,” Lyon said. “And it came from the federal Schools and Staffing Survey, which is one of our best data sources.” Tracking teacher union membership can be complicated because of mergers, and because the two national unions — the American Federation of Teachers and the National Education Association — include non-teachers and retired teachers in their ranks. Still, even with the drop, the 68 percent dwarfs that of the private sector, where just 10 percent of workers are in unions.

Roughly 35 states have laws that either explicitly ban or effectively prohibit teacher strikes, but those laws haven’t stopped educators from organizing labor stoppages. (Nearly every state in the #RedforEd teacher strikes from 2018 and 2019 — including Arizona, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Oklahoma — had banned teacher strikes.)

In compiling their data set, Lyon, Kraft, and Steinberg included both legal strikes and illegal work stoppages, including mass walk-outs, “sick-outs” (when teachers call in sick en masse), or so-called “wildcat strikes” (when educators strike without the support of union leadership).

Perhaps counterintuitively, they found strikes were more common in more conservative, labor-hostile states, something they attributed mostly to large-scale coordinated strikes across districts happening more often in those places. Individual district strikes were more likely to occur in liberal areas, where such actions are legal.

The teacher uprisings over the last decade have helped boost support from parents and the broader public, who report in surveys backing for educator organizing and increased teacher pay. The percentage of the public who see teacher unions as a positive influence on schools rose from 32 percent in 2013 to 43 percent in 2019, according to Education Next polling. A majority of the US public supports teachers having the right to strike, which suggests educators may be comfortable using this tactic going forward.

Kamala Harris’s recent embrace of rent control, explained

Originally published in Vox on August 6, 2024.
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At her first major campaign rally since becoming the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris made a relatively unexpected promise.

Speaking in Atlanta to a crowd of 10,000 supporters, Harris pledged to “take on corporate landlords and cap unfair rent increases.”

Harris’s remarks to cap rents echoed a recent proposal from the Biden administration just two weeks earlier to limit rent hikes to 5 percent nationwide over the next two years for all landlords who own more than 50 units. (They estimate this would cover over 20 million units across the country.) The Biden plan — which would require congressional approval — would exempt not-yet-built units, so as to not discourage much-needed new housing. The two-year rent cap, Biden officials said, would serve as a way to drive down costs while new housing was under construction.

Harris’s seeming embrace of the Biden plan isn’t the first time she’s expressed support for rent control. In 2019, after Oregon adopted a then first-of-its-kind statewide rent control measure, she tweeted in praise of the bill signing. “No one should ever have to choose between paying their rent each month or feeding their children,” Harris wrote. As a senator, she also introduced legislation to offer tax relief to renters who earned less than $100,000 if they spent more than 30 percent of their income on rent and utilities.

Still, it wasn’t clear Harris was going to stick to a pro-renter position on the presidential campaign trail — she’s already abandoned several more left-wing stances she previously embraced while a candidate in 2020. Over the last ten days, Harris has rejected Medicare for All, distanced herself from a federal jobs guarantee, and said she would no longer oppose fracking.

But when it comes to affordable housing, Harris has so far stuck closely with the political playbook of the president, who started campaigning on lowering housing costs more aggressively this year.

Over 22 million households now spend more than a third of their income on rent, and home mortgage rates have soared since 2022.

Rent caps, however, have long been controversial among economists, most of whom argue that the policy hurts housing markets and ultimately limits supply, thus driving costs up further. A review of more than 200 empirical rent control studies released in March found a “wide range of adverse effects” for communities with rent caps, and that landlords were more likely to allow rent-capped units to fall into disrepair.

Still, a growing movement of housing activists has been pressing federal lawmakers to embrace the policy, citing the imminent threat of displacement many tenants face. More than 650,000 people in America experience homelessness on any given night, and federal data published in late 2023 showed a rise in homelessness in most states.

From a campaign perspective, rent caps poll quite well. In one May survey published by Navigator, a Democratic-aligned research group, pollsters found most voters overwhelmingly support cracking down on rent-gouging by corporate landlords, and cracking down on misleading rental fees. Measures to build more homes as a way to drive affordability were far less popular with voters, by contrast, than providing financial aid to renters and regulating rents.

The rent cap pledge didn’t come out of nowhere

Biden’s announcement in mid-July to embrace rent caps on “corporate landlords” came from mounting political pressure, and a sense that he needed to do more to court voters who were feeling badly about the economy and their daunting housing costs.

A Redfin-commissioned survey from February found almost two-thirds of homeowners and renters said that housing affordability made them feel negatively about the economy. Other surveys have suggested that many of the young people and voters of color who helped Biden win in 2020 were now wavering in their support for him, and those voters are more likely to be renters.

Activist pressure came largely from the Tenant Union Federation, a national group that seeks to mobilize renters to advocate for higher standards. This group, formerly known as the Homes Guarantee Campaign, had successfully pushed the Biden administration to release a non-binding “blueprint” for a renter’s bill of rights in January 2023, and since turned its sights to rent control. Activists were specifically interested in rent control Biden could enact without going through Congress, and homed in on the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which regulates the entities that issue billions in government-backed mortgages every year.

In January 2023, these activists helped push a Congressional letter, led by Democrats, asking Biden to take on corporate landlords and end “price gouging in the real estate sector.” The leaders proposed a suite of executive actions the government could take, with their top recommendation to direct the Federal Housing Finance Agency to establish new renter protections, including rent caps.

By July 2023, a new letter from Democratic senators directly urged the Federal Housing Finance Authority to enact “limits against egregious rent hikes” in properties with government-backed mortgages.

While most economists have long warned about negative effects of rent control, tenant activists and their progressive allies in academia and law have been working to challenge perceptions that rent control inevitably hurts housing markets. They point to the debate around the minimum wage, where for decades economists argued that raising the wage would invariably hurt workers and the economy, yet more recently researchers have determined that such increases can actually be effective at boosting living standards for low-wage workers with little to no impact on job loss.

Advocates argue that empirical studies are similarly challenging the conventional wisdom that rent control limits new construction or the overall supply of housing, and they point to examples in New JerseyMassachusettsMinneapolis, and California to make their case.

In a letter the Tenant Union Federation sent to the Federal Housing Finance Agency last fall, activists noted that 182 cities and municipalities across the country had some form of rent regulation as of 2018, and California, like Oregon, had passed new statewide rent limits in the last five years.

Despite successfully pushing federal lawmakers to embrace potential new renter protections and even rent control, Biden and, so far, Harris have declined to go as far as the Tenant Union Federation wants. Some activists, for example, oppose the idea that rent caps would be temporary and exempt new units. The president also declined to endorse a plan that relied solely on his own executive power.

“The whole fact that [Biden] went to Congress to deal with it is messed up,” Elizabeth Olvera Perez, a tenant and leader in the Louisville Tenants Union, told the Nation recently.

Tara Raghuveer, the director of the National Tenant Union Federation, praised Harris’s announcement in Atlanta, acknowledging that it had not been a given that it would be a priority for the vice president. “Rent caps are a winning issue,” Raghuveer tweeted. “Candidates up and down ballot should take heed.”

Most economists remain against rent control

Skeptics of rent caps point to St. Paul, Minnesota, as a cautionary tale.

In November 2021, St. Paul voters approved a ballot measure to cap annual rent increases at 3 percent for most apartments in the city, beginning in May 2022. (The city council loosened this policy in September 2022, to exempt new development for 20 years.)

Developers and investors sounded the alarm, and a year into the experiment, the federal housing department reported that new building permits in St. Paul had plummeted nearly 50 percent compared to a year before, while those in nearby Minneapolis were up 16 percent.

St. Paul planning officials said they weren’t jumping to any conclusions about whether rent control was responsible for the declining construction, and reported their own permitting numbers were somewhat higher. (Tenant activists also argue it’s too soon to legitimately assess the policy’s impact.)

Still, opponents and conservative intellectuals say St. Paul is confirming their worst fears that rent control will make housing more expensive in the aggregate, even if it provides relief to some existing renters in the short term.

Conservatives characterize Biden and Harris’s new embrace of rent control as further evidence that the administration is against landlords. Writing in City Journal, Manhattan Institute senior fellow Judge Glock argued that he doubts the Biden administration’s proposal would actually be limited to just two years. “Almost all rent control laws make such promises; governments often can’t help themselves and keep expanding the laws’ reach anyway,” he said, pointing to New York City’s experience.

Even some prominent liberals have come out against the Biden administration’s new embrace of rent caps.

“Rent control has been about as disgraced as any economic policy in the tool kit,” Jason Furman, the top economic adviser to the Obama administration, recently told the Washington Post. “The idea we’d be reviving and expanding it will ultimately make our housing supply problems worse, not better.”

Colorado’s Democratic governor, Jared Polis, echoed the criticism, saying Biden’s plan “would lead to less affordable housing being built and substantially increase housing costs.”

Legislative tea leaves suggest that Congress is likely to move forward with some sort of federal housing package next year. If Democrats sweep in November, and Harris continues to champion rent control, a national rent-cap policy looks a lot more likely. Whether that takes the form of a broad restriction on corporate landlords, or something more targeted to properties with government-backed mortgages is less clear. However, if Republicans retain control of at least the House or Senate, then the odds of rent caps being passed through Congress are virtually nonexistent.

Tenant activists, meanwhile, will continue to pressure Biden, and Harris, to use presidential executive authority to limit rent hikes. At this point, it’s unclear whether Harris would embrace such a move if she wins the election, even as her boss has thus demurred. The Harris campaign did not return a request for comment.